It’s a nonsense hypothetical for now, given that only about one-third of the regular season has been played, but if the season ended today, the Athletics would host a playoff series at Sutter Health Park, the Sacramento River Cats’ minor league stadium that the Athletics are calling home until 2028, when their brand-new stadium in Las Vegas is expected to be complete.

At 3:05 p.m. ET, the Athletics will look to salvage at least the final game of their series against the Seattle Mariners after dropping games on Monday and Tuesday. With a win, Seattle would take over the division lead.

Logan Gilbert will crest the hill for the Mariners in the series finale, and Jeffrey Springs will get the call for the Athletics.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Seattle Mariners at Athletics prediction, preview

All in all, Seattle has had a disappointing season after coming within nine outs of reaching the World Series in 2025. The Mariners started off 4-9, and while they’ve played 23-20 ball since then to climb nearly back to .500, that’s merely an 87-win pace that would’ve seen them narrowly miss the playoffs in 2025 and narrowly make it 2024. In particular, Seattle’s offense has been poor, dipping from 10th in OPS in 2025 to 18th so far this season. Cal Raleigh has followed up his 2025 MVP runner-up campaign with a complete dud, overshadowing the addition of Brendan Donovan, who was extremely solid before going down with a groin strain. Still, if the Mariners ever turn their offense around, their bullpen and rotation have both gotten better relative to last season despite closer Andrés Muñoz’s struggles. They’ve also gotten somewhat unlucky, as their run differential is equivalent to that of a typical team three games better.

The Athletics haven’t been able to establish much game-to-game consistency over the last month and a half, neither winning nor losing more than three games in a row since the second week of April, but splitting games is fine when it’s kept them hovering around .500 for most of the season. Offensively, they’ve dipped somewhat from eighth to ninth in OPS, but they’ve gotten enough contributions from breakout star Shea Langeliers (a .920 OPS) and last season’s Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz (52 walks and a .437 OBP, both of which lead all of the major leagues). Their pitching staff has been a bigger impetus for improvement, as it had a bottom-seven rotation and bullpen last season but has been closer to the middle of the pack this season, thanks to their closer rotation of Hogan Harris and Joel Kuhnel, both of whom sport a sub-3 ERA.

Gilbert is a solid pitcher who rarely pitches his team completely out of it, although a 6.2-inning, seven-run outing against the San Diego Padres on May 16 imparted some significant damage. After a mediocre start to the season, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts, and with a respectable 3.94 expected ERA, Statcast suggests that his solid form will continue. Gilbert is the rare pitcher with both power and control, ranking near the league’s top tertile in fastball velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, which should both mitigate some of the Athletics’ strengths and exacerbate their weaknesses. However, because he throws more than half of his pitches in the zone, he’s prone to the occasional hard hit, ranking in the bottom quintile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, and that could be an issue against one of baseball’s better slugging lineups, especially in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks. The splits are not in Gilbert’s favor; he has been slightly worse on the road throughout his career, and the Athletics have been the league’s third-best home offense this season. He’s pitched well in two of his last three starts against the Athletics, but none came at Sutter Health Park.

Springs, like Gilbert, is solid but unspectacular, pitching to a 4.11 ERA in both 2025 and 2026. Unlike Gilbert, Springs is trending in the wrong direction, as after pitching to a 1.46 ERA through his first four starts of the season, he’s recorded a 5.89 mark since then, giving up four runs in 6.1 innings in his most recent start. Still, he has a lower expected ERA than Gilbert, as despite not throwing very hard or striking out many batters, he induces a lot of soft contact and doesn’t issue many walks. Springs’ damage control abilities could be an asset against a Seattle offense that ranks above the league median in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity despite its overall mediocrity, and the Mariners’ high whiff and strikeout rates could make life a little bit easier for him. Last season, he allowed just three earned runs in 11 innings against Seattle at Sutter Health Park, and the Mariners have been slightly worse on the road and significantly worse against lefties.

Seattle Mariners at Athletics pick, best bet

Best Bet: Athletics Moneyline (+104)

Despite the results of the first two games, I’m worried about Gilbert’s predilection to allow hard hits at a venue like Sutter Health Park, and Springs’ high-floor, low-ceiling game works well against Seattle’s boom-or-bust offense.

Strong Lean: Nick Kurtz 2+ Total Bases (+120)

Kurtz has been more bust than boom so far this series, striking out four times without a hit, but he’s still had two or more total bases in four of his last eight games, giving this prop good value. 45% of the pitches Gilbert throws to lefties are either four-seamers or cutters, and Kurtz has an xSLG north of .750 against both pitches this season.