NHL picks today: Our prediction and pick for Game 3 of the first round between the Canadiens and Lightning in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Canadiens vs. Lightning first-round series will shift to Montreal for Game 3 of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with first puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a -122 Moneyline favorite, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Below, I’ll provide a Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 3 prediction and pick.
This series has been one of the more exciting ones thus far, with both games requiring overtime. It also makes for good hockey when these two teams absolutely hate each other, and the penalty box bench has been warm, with a combined 80 penalty minutes and 17 power play opportunities across the first two games. The Canadiens have taken advantage in that department, going 4-for-9 on the power play thus far, while the Lightning have been winning the 5v5 battle, with 4-of-6 goals coming at even strength.
Both teams ranked inside the top-10 in both goal percentage and expected goals per 60 during the regular season, and that offensive excellence has exposed the goaltenders. While Andrei Vasilevskiy is one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, the Canadiens have had his number in recent matchups, holding him to a .892 SV% across his past seven starts against them. Jakub Dobes hasn’t looked much better, and the defense in front of him tends to give up more high-quality chances than the Lightning do for Vasilevskiy. Dobes has now allowed 3+ goals in six of his past seven starts and ranks 13th in goals saved above expected this postseason.
Tampa Bay averaged a league-leading 3.68 goals per game when playing on the road, and these goaltenders have let in some rather soft goals, considering there have been just a combined 10 high-danger chances in two games.
Bet it straight up or use it as a parlay builder, but Montreal has covered the Puck Line in each of its last 27 games as underdogs.
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