Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Jarren Duran, Paul Goldschmidt and Brandon Lowe.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s all-day slate: Jarren Duran, Paul Goldschmidt and Brandon Lowe.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran | +450 | After hitting a long home run on Tuesday, Duran’s now hitting .241 with 11 home runs and a robust .247 ISO in his past 39 games. There’s there’s Max Scherzer. The former Cy Young owns a 10.23 ERA in his six starts this season. In 22.0 innings, he’s surrendered nine homers. |
| Paul Goldschmidt | +464 | Among all qualified hitters, Goldschmidt comes into Wednesday’s action with the league’s fifth-highest expected slugging percentage against left-handed pitching (.663). For his career, Goldschmidt is slashing .327/.426/.591 against southpaws with a .264 ISO and a 171 wRC+. |
| Brandon Lowe | +288 | Lowe sports a .321 ISO and a 153 wRC+ versus RHPs in 2026. Now he’ll get to face Aaron Civale coming off a three-week IL stint. In his final three starts before the injury, Civale surrendered eight home runs in just 14.0 innings of work. |
In-depth analysis below.
Duran hit a deep long ball on Tuesday night to register the Red Sox’s lone run in a 6-1 loss to the Jays. It was 445 feet to straight away center field. Just a thing of beauty. Now, I won’t sit here and tell you that Duran’s been fantastic throughout 2026; however, it is worth noting that the former All-Star has been much better since the beginning of May. In the outfielder’s past 39 games, he’s hitting .241 with 11 home runs and a robust .247 ISO. Is he also striking out all the time? Certainly. But when he does make contact, he’s quite dangerous. Needless to say, I’m expecting some contact tonight against the floundering Max Scherzer. The veteran RHP is a first ballot Hall of Famer when he decides to hang up his cleats, yet I can not sugarcoat his work this season. In six starts and 22.0 innings, Scherzer’s surrendered nine homers. He’s pitched to an absurd 10.23 ERA. He owns a fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (13.2%). It’s been awful.
Among all qualified hitters, Paul Goldschmidt comes into Wednesday’s action with the league’s fifth-highest expected slugging percentage against left-handed pitching (.663). If that’s not a large enough sample of the former MVP’s dominance within the split, remember that for his entire career, Goldschmidt is slashing .327/.426/.591 against southpaws with a .264 ISO and a 171 wRC+. That’s over 2,200 plate appearances. I think I’m pretty safe in suggesting that few men in MLB history have punished LHPs like Goldy. This evening’s lefty? Anthony Kay. The 31-year-old has had his moments in 2026, but overall, he’s struggled with RHBs, giving up a .301 average and a .386 wOBA in opposite-hand matchups. Kay’s also conceding 1.66 home runs per nine to right-handed hitters. This is a bad matchup for the one-time NPB stud.
The A’s are back playing at Sutter Health Park after hitting 20 home runs in six games in Las Vegas. That’s not ideal for our purposes, but let’s not forget that Sacramento hasn’t exactly been a pitcher’s paradise, either. Both the Athletics and the Pirates should be able to reach the seats on Wednesday evening, and I’ve specifically got my eye on Brandon Lowe in a matchup with Aaron Civale, who will return from a three-week stint on the IL. Civale was not throwing well before his ailment. In fact, in his final three starts before the injury, Civale surrendered eight home runs in just 14.0 innings of work. Woof. For the season as a whole, Civale is giving up 2.27 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. As such, I do not expect Civale’s encounters with Lowe to go all that swimmingly for the veteran. In 2026, Lowe sports a .321 ISO and a 153 wRC+ versus RHPs.
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