Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.
Remember in the middle of May? When the Padres momentarily took the lead in the NL West? We’re so far removed from that reality.
In fact, coming into the first contest of this three-game divisional series, Los Angeles now leads San Diego by a whopping nine games, and the two-time reigning World Series Champions have an MLB-high 52 wins. All is right in the baseball ecosystem. Well, all is at least normal.
That said, this is one of those rivalries that transcends the standings. It’s always a good time. Let’s preview this clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
The rollercoaster ride that is Roki Sasaki keeps on chugging along. There are moments where you allow yourself to get excited about the 24-year-old, like when Sasaki threw seven scoreless innings against the Angels with 10 strikeouts back on June 5. However, the former NPB standout will then follow up such a performance by surrendering seven earned runs to the White Sox. He has to keep you on your toes, I guess. Ironically, these diametric extremes have washed out in Sasaki’s overall stats for the season, which simply look like a middle-of-the-road, back-end rotation piece. The right-hander owns a 4.76 ERA and a 4.33 xERA across 68.0 innings. Still, there are certainly some real positives in Sasaki’s sophomore campaign if you look hard enough. For instance, since the beginning of May, Sasaki has actually posted a 4.0 K/BB ratio and a 1.04 WHIP. If he can maintain that level of command, he’s going to figure it all out in North America at some point.
Specific to tonight’s contest, I think there’s a pretty good chance that we see the aforementioned “exciting” version of Sasaki, if for no other reason than the Padres’ complete inability to score runs in 2026. San Diego’s offense has simply been abysmal. The Padres rank dead-last in the league in batting average (.220), OBP (.294), wOBA (.292) and wRC+ (87). Things have been a little better over the past two weeks, as Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have finally showed a bit of a pulse in the batter’s box, but even still, that’s translated to .303 expected wOBA and a 99 wRC+. It’s just not enough.
For as underwhelming as San Diego’s lineup has been, the club has gotten all it could have hoped for — and more — from Walker Buehler. The former Dodgers star is easily pitching at his best level since all the way back in 2021, when Buehler finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. In 2026, over 15 starts and 72.2 innings, Buehler sports a 3.96 ERA and a sterling 3.28 FIP. The strikeout rate has ticked up, the walk rate has ticked down; yet the most important thing that the RHP is doing this season is inducing a 49.3% ground ball rate. That’s meant just 0.62 opponent home runs per nine for Buehler, a massive 180-degree turn for an issue that has plagued the veteran each of the past two seasons. It might be difficult to continue that trend this evening, as the Dodgers lead MLB in expected wOBA (.349) and wRC+ (118), but on the whole, Buehler has to be very happy with his current form.
Los Angeles leads the league with 26 road wins, which includes sweeping a three-game set in Minnesota earlier this week. At the end of the day, these are solid odds for a matchup that is essentially MLB’s best offense against its worst.
Sasaki owns a 29.1% strikeout rate across his past six starts, a span of time where he has hit this prop four times. He should be able to work deep into this outing against a Padres lineup that sits dead-last in batting average (.220), OBP (.294), wOBA (.292) and wRC+ (87).
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