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A battle between NL Central foes takes center stage tonight at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs remain atop the division for the moment but are fending off a three-game losing streak. Meanwhile the Milwaukee Brewers are just half a game shy of first place with the potential to overtake pole position with another win over their rival tonight after a 9-3 drubbing at Wrigley Field yesterday.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Tuesday’s Brewers vs. Cubs matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Brew Crew have made a real push recently, winning eight of their last 10 and moving to 27-18 on the campaign. One stat to note? Their run differential of +67 ranks fourth best in baseball, which is somewhat surprising given that the team is 19th in OPS at .701 with an ISO of just .119. They average 5.04 runs per game, fifth most of any team, with a full slash line of .246/.335/.366. That OBP is good for fourth, driven by an 0.55 BB/K ratio that ranks third. When they do get on base, the Brewers are always a threat to snag an extra one with 50 stolen bases on the year, fourth most as well. All of those factors have created the ultimate small-ball experience with the roster last among all teams with only 32 home runs on the year; it’s certainly working, though. Between that and some elite arms, it’s not hard to see why Milwaukee has been successful lately. The staff ERA of 3.28 is third best with a 1.21 WHIP and a 17.0% K-BB% that ranks second in the MLB. It’s not only the starters, either, since the relievers’ ERA of 3.28 ranks sixth with a 1.29 WHIP and 15.0% K-BB%.
Fireballing RHP Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound for Milwaukee today with a 3-2 record across nine starts. He boasts a 2.12 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, striking out 80 betters in just 51 IP. That total is tied for the MLB lead, with the K% sitting at 39.6% for the young star. His average fastball velocity? Only 99.6 mph, no big deal.
The Cubs remain atop the NL Central for the moment, but the margin is slim. If there’s any reason why, it’s that they haven’t won any of their last three series and dropped last night’s opener to Milwaukee as well. At just 3-7 over their last 10, they’re trending in the wrong direction. The offense does remain formidable though, averaging the fourth-most runs with 5.08 per game with an OPS of .747 that ranks in the same spot. The full slash line reads .246/.432/.405 with a .159 ISO, also mashing 58 home runs, sixth most. Much like the Brewers, the Cubs are another team with an excellent plate approach. They’re second in BB/K ratio at 0.57, which fuels the second-best OBP at .342. However, their pitching staff doesn’t have the same edge. Chicago comes in at 15th in ERA with a 4.10 mark, also bringing a 1.22 WHIP and 13.6% K-BB%. The bullpen’s ERA of 3.75 may not look great, but they have a 1.24 WHIP and the third-ranked LOB% at 75.8% as well.
The Cubs are set to start RHP Ben Brown, who’s 1-1 in his 14 appearances so far with two starts. He has a 1.60 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, striking out 34 hitters in 33.2 IP. He grades out above average in most metrics, particularly excelling at limiting barrels and forcing ground balls.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -118 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Cubs come in slightly behind with -102 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at only 7.5 combined runs between these sides.
Is there any pitcher cooler than Misiorowski in the game right now? The kid has a rocket launcher for an arm with absurd velocity and hit 103.6 mph earlier this month, just totally resetting the standard for blazing fastballs. He’s also dealt well with his slider, which generates quite a bit of break and has helped him post a 39.5% whiff rate. As mentioned earlier, his K% of 39.6% paces the Majors as well, so what better pick for tonight than a strikeouts prop? Yes, the Cubs are excellent at keeping their K’s down at the plate, but Misiorowski is built different. He’s struck out eight or more batters in seven of his nine starts this season, and he left one of his appearances early due to injury. After punching out 29 batters across three games in May and each of his last five starts — with double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back games — I’m taking the star to reach eight K’s tonight.
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