Tuesday night left this series with smoke still hanging over Busch. St. Louis is 28-19, second in the NL Central, and coming off a 9-6 extra-inning win powered by four homers, including Iván Herrera’s 410-foot walk-off shot in the 10th. Pittsburgh is 24-24, last in a crowded division, and the four-game losing streak looks worse because the Pirates did enough offensively Tuesday to steal the game: 12 hits, six runs, Bryan Reynolds tying it with a two-run double, Oneil Cruz pushing them ahead, and Spencer Horwitz dragging them back even in the ninth. The matchup has a clean NL Central shape: the Cardinals are the better team in the standings, while the Pirates’ bats are the more interesting piece against the starter in front of them. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction, preview

McGreevy’s ERA tries to end the argument before the contact data gets a turn. The Cardinals right-hander is 3-2 with a 2.10 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 36 strikeouts, 11 walks and only 34 hits allowed across 51.1 innings, and MLB’s game preview notes he has allowed two earned runs over his last 24 innings. That is the shiny version. The betting version is more unstable: his Statcast page shows an enormous gap between results and expected damage, with a .236 wOBA allowed against a .421 xwOBA, 88.8 mph average exit velocity, 40.0% hard-hit rate and a 20.0% barrel mark. Carmen Mlodzinski brings the opposite texture for Pittsburgh: 3-3, 4.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 43 strikeouts, 16 walks and only two homers allowed in 45 innings, yet the contact file is rough at 92.2 mph average exit velocity, 54.1% hard-hit rate, .331 wOBA, .331 xwOBA and 9.2% barrels. Both starters have ways to get through innings. Both also have enough contact danger to make a 7.5 total feel alive before either bullpen gets involved.

Pittsburgh’s path starts with the kind of top-half pressure McGreevy has mostly escaped so far. The Pirates have a .253 average, .345 OBP, .401 slugging and .746 OPS against right-handed pitching, a top-five OPS split in MLB, and that matters because this is the exact lane where McGreevy’s expected damage can finally catch up. Brandon Lowe is the cover-image bat for the angle: .252/.346/.546 with 12 homers, a .386 wOBA, .379 xwOBA, 13.3% barrel rate and 45.0% hard-hit rate. Cruz gives the lineup the violent swing, Reynolds brings switch-hit stability with a .351 wOBA and .380 xwOBA, Nick Gonzales is hitting .314 with a .378 OBP, and Horwitz adds another traffic piece at .279/.387/.419. That group does not need to turn Busch into a launching pad. Four runs can come from singles, walks, first-to-third pressure, a wild pitch, and one Lowe/Cruz/Reynolds extra-base ball in the first six innings.

The Cardinals can answer with real force, which keeps this away from a Pittsburgh side. Jordan Walker has become the center of the St. Louis offense at .299/.369/.576 with 13 homers, a .409 wOBA and 165 wRC+, and the quality of contact supports the breakout: 94.7 mph average exit velocity, 54.1% hard-hit rate, .413 wOBA, .388 xwOBA and 17.2% barrels. Alec Burleson sits behind him as a cleaner-than-flashy run producer with a .342 wOBA, .379 xwOBA, 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 48.3% hard-hit rate and 10.9% barrel rate. Herrera, Nolan Gorman and JJ Wetherholt all homered Tuesday, and St. Louis produced a .443 wOBA and .417 xwOBA as a team in that game. That is why the full-game over is live. It is also why Pittsburgh ML is a harder sell than Pittsburgh runs; Mlodzinski’s hard-contact profile and the Pirates’ late-inning volatility make the moneyline a more fragile ticket than the matchup edge against McGreevy.

Pirates vs. Cardinals pick, best bet

The market is giving a few tempting doors, but Pirates team total Over 3.5 is the cleanest one. Pirates ML around even money attacks McGreevy, then asks Pittsburgh’s bullpen to protect the answer. Full-game Over 7.5 has a strong case with two contact-warning starters and two bullpens that can turn a normal game crooked, but it still needs St. Louis to cooperate if McGreevy’s regression is the main weakness on the board. Cardinals team total Over 3.5 is live because Mlodzinski allows so much firm contact, though St. Louis’ recent righty-split form is less stable than Pittsburgh’s season-long righty attack. Pirates TT Over 3.5 keeps the bet pointed at the best mismatch: McGreevy’s ERA/expected-contact gap against a lineup with Lowe, Cruz, Reynolds, Gonzales and Horwitz all capable of extending innings.

Best bet: Pirates team total Over 3.5 (-125). Playable to -135. The cleanest failure mode is McGreevy sequencing his way through five soft-contact innings while Pittsburgh’s lower half strands the traffic, but the stronger read is that the Pirates’ righty-split offense is too well-positioned against this much expected damage. Lowe is the right cover athlete because he gives the handicap a face: power, xwOBA support, barrel proof, and a projected top-two lineup spot against the pitcher most likely to regress.

Final score projection: Cardinals 5, Pirates 4.

Best bet: Pirates TT o3.5 runs (-125) at Cardinals

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