Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.
A 14-run outburst powered the Royals (31-45) to a series-opening win last night. On Friday, the Cardinals (40-33) will hope to even things up with their in-state rivals. One of St. Louis’ best arms, Michael McGreevy, will take the mound tonight at Kauffman Stadium. Opposing him will be another quality hurler, Kansas City’s Seth Lugo. Who will come out on top in the latest I-70 Series clash?
The Cardinals are favorites (-120) over the Royals, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between St. Louis and Kansas City on DraftKings Sportsbook.
As previously mentioned, it’ll be McGreevy on the mound for St. Louis. The right-hander is a true throwback, flummoxing opposing hitters with control rather than blazing speed. Through 78.1 innings, the 25-year-old has notched a 2.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 51 strikeouts (5.9 K/9). His fastball only tops out at 91.5 MPH, but that hasn’t mattered so far thanks to exceptional command (2.2 BB/9). McGreevy’s peripherals aren’t the best, to say the least. A 5.58 xERA, .292 xBA, 91.0 MPH fastball velocity and 19.3% whiff rate all sit within the tenth percentile among qualified starters.
Last night aside, the Royals aren’t usually the most fearsome group at the plate. They’re averaging 4.14 runs per game, ninth-worst in baseball. That’s without factoring injuries to big bats such as Vinnie Pasquantino (hand) and Maikel Garcia (hand); the latter is questionable as of Friday afternoon. The same is true of Bobby Witt Jr. (knee), who left Thursday’s contest early due to knee discomfort. There’s an argument to be made that no hitter is more important to their team’s success than the two-time All-Star. Should he sit out this evening, an already feeble offense becomes even worse.
The Cardinals are a difficult crew to figure out. There’s nothing this team does exceptionally well, but there aren’t any glaring weaknesses either. At the dish, they’ve notched the 13th-most runs per game (4.55), 16th-most home runs (83) and 14th-best OPS (.721). It’s a bit of a stars and scrubs situation when it comes to St. Louis’ lineup. Jordan Walker is finally living up to his best prospect in baseball potential. Through 72 games, the outfielder is slashing .291/.345/.537 with 18 homers, 57 RBIs and ten steals. He’s joined by a trio of talented hitters in Ivan Herrera (134 wRC+), Alec Burleson (130 wRC+) and JJ Wetherholt (123 wRC+). Outside of those four, no other Cardinals regular has a wRC+ above 100.
Facing the Redbirds this evening will be Lugo, making his 14th start of the season. The 36-year-old isn’t at an All-Star level anymore, but he remains a quality pitcher. Over 79.1 innings of work (14 starts), he’s accounted for a 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 66 strikeouts (7.5 K/9). Much like McGreevy, the right-hander’s advanced metrics are uninspiring. He sits within the 15th percentile in xERA (5.30), xBA (.279), fastball velocity (91.5 MPH) and whiff rate (18.3%). Lugo is crafty, throwing a sinker or cutter on 37% of his pitches. Against those offerings, Cardinals batters are slashing .281/.371/.417.
If the Royals were healthier, I’d feel more confident backing them tonight. However, the looming absence of Witt Jr. makes it almost impossible to see Kansas City scoring more than two or three runs. A league-average Cardinals offense should find a way to surpass that total against Lugo on Friday.
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