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In their quest to make the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999, the New York Knicks are halfway there. After holding on to edge past the Philadelphia 76ers in Wednesday’s Game 2, the Knicks have a 2-0 lead.
But the series is far from over; proverbially, it doesn’t start until the road team wins a game, and all New York has done so far is protect its home-court advantage. If the Knicks win tonight’s 7:10 p.m. ET Game 3 in Philadelphia, the series will be effectively over, but if the 76ers win, they could easily go on to claim the series.
Both teams have some major injury questions: for Philadelphia, Joel Embiid (ankle/hip) is questionable after missing Game 2, and for New York, OG Anunoby (hamstring) has the same designation. Josh Hart (thumb) is probable.
The 76ers are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-122 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 214.5. The Knicks are +102 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s critical game.
Philadelphia hasn’t had much of an answer for Brunson, who set the tone for the series with a 14-point first-quarter outburst in Game 1 en route to 27 at the break. He followed that up with nine points in the opening frame in Game 2, marking the third consecutive game in which he’s reached that threshold. Brunson ranks second among all playoff participants in first-quarter usage rate, just a tick behind Embiid, and he ranked fifth in that stat during the regular season, as well as second in scoring. His usage rate could even go up if either of Hart or Anunoby sit; he scored at least nine first-quarter points in six of his 12 games without Anunoby during the regular season.
Whether or not Embiid plays, Philadelphia doesn’t really have a perimeter stopper capable of slowing down Brunson. VJ Edgecombe did an admirable job against him during the regular season, holding him to eight-for-24 shooting on 106.2 partial possessions, but the playoffs are a different beast. So far this series, Brunson is eight-for-16 when guarded by him. As a team, the 76ers rank fourth-to-last in defensive rating so far these playoffs after finishing just 17th during the regular season, and if Embiid ends up sitting, their defense would likely be even worse, given that he has recorded a positive defensive on-off plus-minus in each season of his career.
Last summer’s third overall pick will need to have a huge performance if Philadelphia wants to pull off a win tonight, especially on the glass and as a tertiary playmaker. Most players with heavy minutes loads perform better when their teams win, but that difference was especially stark for Edgecombe as a passer; during the regular season, he averaged 3.2 assists per game in losses and 5.0 assists per game in wins. He also had at least 10 combined rebounds/assists in all four of the 76ers’ first-round victories, including a 30-point, 10-board masterpiece to shift the tone of the series in Game 2.
Though he hasn’t recorded nine combined rebounds and assists in either game this series, nothing about New York’s defense makes it objectively more difficult than the Boston Celtics unit that Edgecombe just tore up. The Knicks allowed the third-fewest rebounds and sixth-fewest assists per game during the regular season, but the Celtics also had a top-six defense in both facets. While New York has primarily guarded him with Hart, who’s done an excellent job recording deflections, he’s also enjoyed several possessions against Brunson, who isn’t nearly as active in the passing lanes. Additionally, he should have a huge height and athleticism advantage over Brunson in defensive rebounding opportunities, and if Anunoby sits, the whole Philadelphia team should find it somewhat easier to record rebounds.
Towns isn’t known for his defense, but he’s played well so far these playoffs, recording at least two blocks in four of his six games against the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, and he had two in Game 1 as well. He’s been far more effective defensively overall than he was during the regular season, as his stop percentage (a composite metric that combines steals, blocks, and offensive fouls drawn) has more than doubled. He’d be even more effective if he wasn’t in consistent foul trouble, but the 76ers aren’t a bad matchup in that regard, given that they drew fouls at a below-average rate during the regular season.
Philadelphia’s play-style is definitely conducive to blocks. The 76ers attempt a lot of shots close to the basket, recording the fourth-most restricted-area tries during the regular season, but because Maxey and Edgecombe lack the strength to bother bigger defenders, lots of those shots are wild. As a result, Philadelphia conceded the 11th-most blocks per game during the regular season. Additionally, Towns has mostly sat back in drop coverage these playoffs, with a large plurality of his defensive possessions in the first round coming against Onyeka Okongwu and a majority this series coming against either Embiid or Andre Drummond. A fully healthy Embiid is capable of spacing the floor, but if his body isn’t 100%, he might camp in the post, making it easier for Towns to hover near the basket.
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