Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

I can give you trends that will tell you to bet either side of this double digit spread in Boston, as the Celtics look to close out the 76ers in Game 5. The C’s dominated Game 4 in Philadelphia, and generally haven’t been able to carry that domination into the following game over the last few postseasons. We saw it in this series, when the Sixers stole Game 2 after losing Game 1 by over 30 points. Dating back to the second round of the 2024 postseason, Boston is now 0-10-1 ATS following a double digit win. That would tell you to back Philly here.

However, the Celtics have also been dominant in close out Game 5’s at home during the same span. The Celtics have had four opportunities to end a series in Boston in Game 5 since the 2024 postseason began. They are 4-0 in those games, winning by an average of 24.5 points — a 31 point win over the Magic last season, an 18-point win over the Mavericks to clinch the 2024 NBA Championship, and wins by 15 and 34 over the Cavs and Heat during that same title run. The last time the Celtics had a home game to close out the 76ers in the postseason was in 2023, and they beat Philly by 24 points. That would tell you to lay it with the Celts.

Ultimately, I’m staying away from the points, but will back the Celtics to close this one out in another form. Boston has dominated the first quarter in this series, leading in all four games (including the Game 2 loss) by an average of 9.75 points. Joel Embiid’s return didn’t help the Sixers … if anything it slowed them down, trailing by 16 points after the first quarter.

I’ll back the Celtics to lead after the first quarter and win the game (which is a specific market under “Game Lines”), which is priced at a reasonable -145.

NBA Pick: Celtics 1Q/Fulltime (-145)