Memorial Day’s home run board has a little more texture than the usual holiday slug hunt. The best prices are tucked between hot bats and imperfect pitching, with Oracle Park getting rare carry weather, Sutter Health Park playing like a real power environment and Kauffman giving Ben Rice enough warmth to keep his left-handed thump live. Casey Schmitt enters with three homers in four games and a nearly 5-1 number against Merrill Kelly’s loud contact profile. Shea Langeliers brings a 12-homer catcher bat into Sacramento air against a Luis Castillo version allowing far too much hard contact. Rice gives the card its Yankee damage piece, with elite barrel data and a mid-4s price that still feels too long for his season-long power. This is the Memorial Day lane worth attacking: hitters already lifting the baseball, pitchers already leaking impact contact and numbers that still leave room for baseball’s usual nonsense.

Below are my three favorite picks from the early slate of games to swat one out.

Top MLB Home Run Props today

Casey Schmitt to hit a home run (+485)

Casey Schmitt is the Memorial Day power swing with the best marriage of price, heater and pitcher vulnerability. The Giants’ lineup has started to hum again, and Schmitt is right in the middle of it: a homer, double, three runs and three RBI on Sunday, his third HR in four games, while San Francisco stacked 18 runs across two games. The sample size is now large enough that we’re not staring down the barrel of any fluke pop, here. Schmitt owns a .375 wOBA, .360 xwOBA, 46.6% hard-hit rate, 14.6% barrel rate and 20.6-degree average launch angle, which is exactly the air-space profile needed for a one-swing ticket. Merrill Kelly is the other half of the case. He comes in with a 5.71 ERA, and the underlying contact sheet is even louder: 91.3 mph average exit velocity allowed, 45.6% hard-hit rate allowed, .371 wOBA allowed, .428 xwOBA allowed and an 18.4% barrel rate allowed. Schmitt already took Kelly deep last week. At nearly 5-1, this is heat meeting leakage.

Ben Rice to hit a home run (+445)

Ben Rice is the scary number because the market is still hanging a mid-tier HR price on a hitter producing like an elite damage bat. He enters with a .282 average, 16 HR, 33 RBI and a 1.000 OPS, and that homer total sits near the top of the American League. The recent form is active, too: three HR in his last 10 games, plus a two-run shot against Toronto last week that tied him with Aaron Judge for the Yankees’ team lead at the time. His metrics are. 92.7 mph average exit velocity, 53.7% hard-hit rate, .432 wOBA, .406 xwOBA, .546 wOBAcon, .506 xwOBAcon and 18.2% barrel rate. Michael Wacha is not a gas can, which keeps this from being a cartoon play, but Rice already has a homer in six career at-bats against him, and Wacha’s 2026 barrel rate allowed is 8.2%, solid but not impenetrable. Rice has the lift, the lineup spot and the bat speed to beat a good pitch.

Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+350)

Shea Langeliers is the cleanest Athletics power target at a number that still respects the variance. The season profile has graduated from catcher pop into full middle-order violence: a recent A’s snapshot had him leading the league in hits with a .328 average, and he’s at 12 HR, 12 doubles, 27 RBI and 35 runs through 48 games. The batted-ball shape is strong enough for HR-only exposure: per Statcast, 92.3 mph EV, 47.2% hard-hit and 15.5% barrels. Luis Castillo gives the matchup its edge. The name still carries ace gravity, but the 2026 contact profile does not: 6.41 ERA, 92.5 mph EV allowed, 51.0% hard-hit rate allowed, .367 wOBA allowed, .366 xwOBA allowed and 11.9% barrel rate allowed. Sacramento gives right-handed pull power more life than the old Coliseum ever did.