TThe Mets and Rockies get the nightcap at Coors Field after Tuesday’s weather postponement, with New York at 13-22 and Colorado at 14-22 in a matchup that looks like Coors chaos on the surface but has a much sharper pitching split underneath. The game was moved to 9:20 p.m. ET, and Denver is still dealing with a cold, ugly weather pocket: rain and snow, 35°F current conditions, a 41°F high and a 37°F low. That takes some carry out of the park, but it does not erase Coors’ gap space, defensive stress, high-BABIP innings and bullpen volatility. New York already won the opener 4-2 after Carson Benge broke up a no-hit bid with a homer, Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens followed with back-to-back doubles, and Mark Vientos punched the game open with a two-run single. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Colorado Rockies and the New York Mets.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Rockies vs. Mets prediction, preview

Freddy Peralta gives New York the game’s clearest separator. He enters 1-3 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 38.1 innings, 30 hits, 42 strikeouts, 16 walks and four HR allowed, and the underlying profile supports the surface: 25.6% K rate, 9.8% walk rate, 15.9% K-BB, 3.72 FIP, 42.6% ground-ball rate and a .260 wOBA allowed. His road split is better than the Coors worry suggests: 11.0 innings, 3.27 ERA, 10 strikeouts, four walks, one HR allowed, and opponents held to .154/.250/.231 with a .231 wOBA. Michael Lorenzen is the pressure point on the other side: 2-3, 6.09 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 34.0 innings, 51 hits, 28 runs, 23 earned runs, six HR, nine walks and 24 strikeouts, with a Statcast sheet showing 90.4 mph average exit velocity allowed, 50.8% hard-hit rate, .404 wOBA, .365 xwOBA, 37.5% sweet-spot rate and 8.7% barrel rate.

New York’s season-long right-handed-pitching split is the one thing that keeps this from becoming a pure Mets team-total play. The Mets are hitting .226/.289/.340 with a .629 OPS against righties, with 197 hits, 33 doubles, three triples, 20 HR, 82 RBI, 76 walks and 204 strikeouts across 963 plate appearances. The current-form layer is more encouraging at the top: Juan Soto’s last 10 include 10 hits, two doubles, two HR, three RBI, six runs, seven walks and a .278/.395/.500/.895 line; Vientos’ last seven are 8-for-26 with two doubles, two HR, seven RBI, four runs and a .308/.357/.615/.973 slash; MJ Melendez is at .286/.348/.476/.824 over his last 10 with six hits, one double, one HR and four RBI. Benge matters because the bottom half needs life for a run-line favorite at Coors, and his recent stretch has shown real progress: since April 23, he is 10-for-33 with a .303 average, .545 SLG, two HR, two doubles and a 16.7% strikeout rate over 36 plate appearances.

Mets vs. Rockies pick, best bet

Colorado’s offense has enough top-half heat to make the run line sweat, yet the full lineup gives Peralta strikeout targets. The Rockies are hitting .255/.328/.415 with a .743 OPS against right-handed pitching, with 236 hits, 53 doubles, four triples, 29 HR, 113 RBI, 89 walks, 14 HBP and 252 strikeouts across 1,039 plate appearances. Moniak is the present-tense problem: he has 11 HR, 21 RBI, a team-leading average around .333, and his recent form has been scorching, with Monday’s double/triple game extending the streak to 17. Hunter Goodman brings the other power lane with nine HR, 15 RBI, 24 runs and a .250 average in the ESPN player-rating snapshot, but his recent strikeout volatility gives Peralta a path to escape. The bottom third is where the Mets’ edge can grow: Kyle Karros, Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle sit behind Goodman/Beck, and the recent form on Tovar and Doyle has been thin enough that Peralta’s strikeout mix can turn Colorado’s rallies into top-heavy bursts rather than sustained innings.

Lorenzen’s times-through-order profile pushes the same direction: first time through as a starter, he has allowed a .381 wOBA and 1.77 WHIP; second time through, the WHIP stays high at 1.69 with only a 9.5% K rate; third time through, he has been hit for a 7.71 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, .424 BABIP and .480 wOBA. That is why the full-game run line is a better shape than paying into the F5 market.

Best bet: Mets -1.5 -105. Mets team total over 5.5 -105 is tempting because Lorenzen’s 6.09 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 50.8% hard-hit rate and third-time-through collapse all scream Coors trouble, but New York’s .629 OPS vs RHP and cold-weather conditions make six runs slightly less comfortable than the run line. The full-game over 9.5 -108 has Moniak and Colorado’s .743 OPS vs RHP working for it, though Peralta’s road split, strikeout edge and Mets bullpen profile make the Rockies’ half less bankable. The run line ties together the cleanest pieces: Peralta’s 3.27 road ERA, Lorenzen’s loud contact, New York’s hot individual bats, Colorado’s lower-order strikeout risk and the better relief profile behind the road favorite. The miss path is Moniak or Goodman turning one Peralta walk into a crooked inning, but the better full-game read points to New York pulling away once Lorenzen reaches the second and third turns.

Projected score: Mets 6, Rockies 3.

Best bet: Mets -1.5 (-105) at Rockies

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