Last year, the Golden State Valkyries had their turn at being the scrappy expansion team that turned heads. This year, it’s the Portland Fire, who have continued to win against the odds. With both teams above .500, this is an important game for the Western Conference standings.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Valkyries are 8.5-point home favorites with -340 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Fire upset is priced at +270. The game total is set at O/U 163.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fire-Valkyries game.

Fire vs. Valkyries Preview

Nobody was counting on the Fire to be relevant in their first season. They didn’t attack the offseason with the same fervor as their fellow expansion team, the Toronto Tempo. But they did get some good talent, and it has paid off in the early going. Portland has four wins in its last five games, including upsets over the Fever and the Liberty. When they’re firing on all cylinders, they play with energy and can make you pay from beyond the arc.

Handing Megan Gustafson her first start of the season against the Fever paid off in a big way. She delivered with 22 points on 8/8 shooting; as good of a night as you could hope for. Emily Engstler has provided excellent defense, Carla Leite is keeping the offense organized, and Bridget Carleton has been a bucket and a half. Though the underlying numbers don’t love the Fire, they keep finding ways to win games.

Golden State continues to double down on its preferred play style. The Valkyries lead the WNBA in three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage as head coach Natalie Nakase maximizes their floor spacing. But the side effects have been equally drastic; the Valks are dead last in two-point attempts and two-point percentage. That’s a problem they’ll have to solve if they want to take another step.

The defense remains strong, with Gabby Williams taking it to a new level. They’re elite at shot prevention, force a lot of turnovers, and rebound quite well given their size issues. Golden State could sure use a big or two, as the burden on new signee Kiah Stokes is extreme. But they’re still winning consistently and going toe-to-toe with elite teams.

Now we have a good idea what to expect from these teams. Who is going to come out the winner?

Fire vs. Valkyries Pick, Best Bet

The highs of Golden State have been excellent. But you cannot ignore the lows. When they go cold from three and can’t get things going inside the arc, their opponents go on big runs. It puts a lot of pressure on the defense to bend without breaking.

I still expect Golden State to do enough for the victory. But Portland will find a way to keep this one close.

Best Bet: Portland Fire +8.5 (-110)