Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Jordan Walker and Rafael Devers.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s all-day slate: Jordan Walker and Rafael Devers.
Let’s break them down.
Walker’s yet to hit a home run in this series at Sutter Health Park. That feels impossible.
The former top prospect has had a tremendous start to his 2026 campaign, entering today’s action with 99th percentile average exit velocity (95.0), a 96th percentile hard hit rate (53.8%) and a 95th percentile barrel rate (18.3%). As you might expect, that’s translated into some pretty impressive surface stats, as Walker’s managed 11 long balls and a .265 ISO in his 176 plate appearances. He’s also got a .324 ISO and a 166 wRC+ specifically in his PAs against left-handed pitching. He’ll see another lefty on Thursday in the form of Jacob Lopez.
In 35.1 innings, Lopez has struggled to a 6.11 ERA, as he’s committed the cardinal sin — pun intended — of mixing a massive 14.4% walk rate with home run issues. Lopez is an extreme fly ball archetype. His 52.6% fly ball rate is the seventh-highest mark in baseball among pitchers with at least 30.0 innings thrown. Not surprisingly, he’s one of 11 pitchers in that same group giving up more than 2.00 opponent long balls per nine. In particular, RHBs are averaging 2.45 home runs per nine with a .398 wOBA off the southpaw. Yikes.
Things were getting pretty bleak with Devers, yet apparently all the slugger needed was the calendar to flip over to May. In his 47 plate appearances in the month, Devers is slashing .366/.426/.707 with a .341 ISO and a 210 wRC+. Mercifully, he’s also started to hit home runs again, with three long balls registered in his past seven games. Red Sox fans can go back to hating every move that Craig Breslow has ever made. All is again right with the world.
On Thursday, Devers and the Giants will be opposed by Emmet Sheehan and the Dodgers. The 26-year-old right-hander has no shortage of potential, and he’s had some real success at the MLB level as a starter — specifically in 2025. That said, Sheehan is certainly at his best when he’s able to spam his fastball and slider combination against RHBs. Against lefties? Well, the formula hasn’t been as tidy in 2026, and that’s why those within the split have combined to hit 2.49 home runs per nine with a .397 wOBA. I’d look for Devers to add positively to those statistics.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。