Monday’s home-run board has one superstar playing at an MVP level, one relocated hitter transforming Cincinnati’s order and one veteran slugger whose power stroke has reappeared with force. James Wood is producing the loudest contact profile of the group. JJ Bleday gets the best opposing pitcher and park combination. Joc Pederson breaks up the Cincinnati exposure while carrying five homers from his last 10 games into a regression-ready pitching matchup.

Below are my three favorite picks from today’s slate of games to swat one out.

Top MLB Home Run Props today

James Wood to hit a home run (+334)

James Wood (OF) has graduated from intriguing young slugger to the most frightening contact event on Monday’s board. The Nationals star enters with 16 HR, 39 RBI, 52 runs, a .272 average and .960 OPS, then arrives at the deeper evidence: a .408 wOBA, .439 xwOBA, 96.6 mph average exit velocity, 60.7% hard-hit rate and absurd 25.5% barrel rate. He is not surviving on a brief launch-angle binge. He has become a hitter who turns nearly every centered ball into a threat to leave the park.

The timing is excellent. Wood homered Sunday against San Diego, his third homer in seven games, as Washington won 4-2 and improved to 31-29. The Nationals have now won or split six consecutive series, and Wood has been the organizing force behind that climb. He hit .311 with a .982 OPS and six HR in May, while his 16th homer left the bat at 113.8 mph.

Sandy Alcantara still owns a Cy Young pedigree, but his present shape is much less intimidating. He carries a 4.66 ERA, then allowed eight runs on 10 hits to Toronto in his latest start. Wood’s elite damage profile makes +334 a fair price rather than a star-tax number.

JJ Bleday to hit a home run (+319)

Bleday enters batting .303 with nine HR, 26 RBI and a 1.040 OPS in 109 at-bats. His expected production supports every inch of the breakout: .434 wOBA, .416 xwOBA, 91.0 mph average exit velocity, 49.4% hard-hit rate, 14.3% barrels and a 43.5% sweet-spot rate. Last season’s 7.8% barrel rate has nearly doubled.

The recent stretch has been relentless. Bleday homered Friday against Atlanta, homered again Saturday, then drove in two runs with two doubles Sunday as Cincinnati beat Spencer Strider and the Braves, 6-4. He started third in each of the Reds’ final two games of the weekend, ahead of Sal Stewart and Eugenio Suárez, an ideal plate-appearance lane for this wager.

Luinder Avila supplies the matchup. The Royals right-hander has an 0-2 record, 5.06 ERA and 20 strikeouts, with a .342 xwOBA and 9.5% barrel rate allowed. Great American Ball Park sharpens the risk of every elevated mistake. Bleday’s number is shorter than Nathaniel Lowe’s, but the hotter bat and better recent order placement settle Cincinnati’s single-player decision.

Joc Pederson to hit a home run (+449)

Joc Pederson (DH) is the necessary replacement for a second Reds wager because his late-May power run meets a starter whose polished ERA disguises dangerous contact. The Texas veteran enters with seven HR, a .244 average and .793 OPS, yet the recent version has been far more imposing: 8-for-32 with five HR, seven RBI and a 1.101 OPS across his last 10 games. He homered May 26 in Texas’ eight-run first inning against Houston, hit two more the following night, then went deep again Saturday during the Rangers’ comeback win over Kansas City.

That heater has enough underlying muscle to take seriously. Pederson owns a 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 47.6% hard-hit rate, .344 xwOBA and 9.5% barrel rate this season. At +449, the price leaves room for a left-handed damage bat receiving middle-order opportunities against a pitcher inviting louder contact than his run line suggests.

Michael McGreevy brings a 2.98 ERA into Monday, but his Statcast profile carries real correction risk: .368 xwOBA allowed, .428 xwOBA on contact, 41.4% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrels allowed. Pederson has rediscovered the pull-side authority Texas signed him for, and McGreevy gives that resurgence another clean power window.