Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers.
Two disappointing clubs are set to meet tonight for an interleague showdown. The Padres (38-35) remain in the hunt for a postseason spot in spite of their dismal offense. It’s a similar story for the Rangers (35-39), who are only three games out in the wide-open AL West. This weekend’s series presents an opportunity for one of these squads to get back on track. Who has the edge tonight in Arlington?
The Rangers are favorites (-163) over the Padres, with the over/under set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s contest between San Diego and Texas on DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego will hand the ball to Randy Vasquez tonight, already one of the team’s best starters. It’s been a breakout campaign for the righty, who has made major strides when it comes to velocity. After tapping out around 90 MPH in 2025, he’s brought his fastball up to just under 95 MPH this season. Through 14 outings, he’s produced a 3.63 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 58 strikeouts (7.0 K/9). Surprisingly, the Dominican is much worse at home (4.99 ERA) than he is on the road (2.08 ERA).
If there’s a major downside for Vasquez, his advanced metrics are terrible. A 6.23 xERA, .292 xBA and 13.0% barrel rate are all major signs of negative regression. Regardless, it’s not as if the Dominican will be taking on an elite lineup tonight. The Rangers are averaging 3.50 runs per game at home, third-worst in baseball. To make matters worse, star shortstop Corey Seager (concussion) is on the injured list. Texas batters have recorded a .697 OPS against right-handed pitching, eighth-lowest in the majors. It helps that Globe Life Field is the friendliest venue for pitchers, per Savant.
As for the home team, it’ll be Jacob deGrom toeing the slab this evening. It’s been another terrific season from the two-time Cy Young winner. Over 76.2 innings of work (14 starts), he’s recorded a 3.17 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 89 strikeouts (10.4 K/9). deGrom has allowed just two earned runs during his last 17.0 innings (1.06 ERA). He sits within the 90th percentile in whiff rate (33.2%), strikeout rate (29.2%) and walk rate (4.9%). In addition, the righty has been absolutely lights out at home (1.26 ERA).
deGrom’s most used off-speed pitch is the slider, which he’s thrown 35% of the time this season. Against that offering, Padres hitters are slashing .198/.267/.357. That shouldn’t come as much of a shock; the Friars have been awful at the plate this year. They’re averaging an MLB-worst 3.84 runs per game. To boot, San Diego also has the league’s lowest OPS against right-handed pitching (.656). Among Padres players with 200+ plate appearances, only Gavin Sheets (114 wRC+) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (102 wRC+) have a wRC+ above 100.
Even in the midst of a losing streak, it’s difficult to fade the Rangers with deGrom on the mound. That’s especially true when going up against a feeble Padres offense. However, it’s not as if Texas gives bettors much reason for confidence either. An offensive outburst from one of these squads, let alone both, feels like wishful thinking tonight.
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