Despite making the playoffs in each of the first nine seasons of his career and ranking seventh in career playoff points per game, Donovan Mitchell had never made a conference finals appearance before this season. It’s a complex legacy to have; by all accounts, Mitchell is an all-time great playoff scorer, but he’s never been good enough to get over the hump.

It seems that Mitchell’s flirtation with the deeper rounds of the playoffs will be a brief one, as his Cleveland Cavaliers have fallen behind 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals despite his averaging a respectable 26.0 points and 3.0 steals per game so far this series. The Cavaliers will host the Knicks at 8:10 p.m. ET in Game 4 tonight, and a New York win would end the series.

Cleveland is a 2.5-point underdog for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set to 218.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Spida.

Best Donovan Mitchell Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

Donovan Mitchell Race to 15 Points (+274)

Mitchell trails New York’s Jalen Brunson in all of the “Race to” odds, and to an extent, that makes sense, as among the 31 players that made at least the second round and play at least eight first-quarter minutes per game, Brunson leads the league in points and usage rate and 14th in true shooting percentage. However, Mitchell doesn’t trail Brunson by much in any of those categories, ranking ninth in scoring, fourth in usage rate, and 20th in true shooting percentage among that subset. He’s also had a higher usage rate overall this series than Brunson, taking over the reins because James Harden has been pretty unreliable and Evan Mobley didn’t get going offensively until Game 3.

Mitchell was the first player to reach 15 points in Game 1, making a three-pointer right before the halftime buzzer, and while he didn’t in either Games 2 or 3, it wasn’t Brunson who beat him there. In Game 2, Josh Hart had the best offensive playoff game of his career, and OG Anunoby nailed his 15th point just two and a half minutes before Mitchell did in Game 3, but neither of them (especially Hart) are especially consistent scoring threats. Mitchell is also due to benefit from improved three-point shooting, as he’s shot his regular season average (36.4%) or worse from deep in each of his last 12 playoff games, so some shooting luck variance should help his first-half scoring. He has a fairly doable defensive matchup in Hart, who had a negative defensive RAPM during the regular season and ranks in just the 28th percentile in contests per 100 possessions so far these playoffs.