The AL West is largely a pitiful division this season, but there’s no shortage of drama as MLB Rivalry Weekend continues. The Houston Astros are hosting the Texas Rangers in the Silver Boot Series, which the home side took the first game of last night thanks to a near-no-hitter. At 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, they run it back again.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Saturday’s Rangers vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rangers vs. Astros prediction, preview

Texas Rangers

To say the AL West is having a dire season would be putting it politely, but the good news for its teams is that almost everyone will probably have a shot at the division. The Rangers are just 21-23 and 5-5 over their last 10 games, but sit only two games shy of first place. Yippee! Granted, Texas has a rather dreadful offense with 3.68 runs per game, second fewest in the MLB. That poor run creation comes via an OPS of .675 on a .230/.311/.363 slash line, with a below-average .133 ISO and 40 home runs as well. They’re not impressive marks, nor is an 0.41 BB/K ratio or a slightly elevated 23.5% K%. Somehow, that all matters less when you have arms like the Rangers — the staff ERA of 3.60 ranks seventh with a 1.23 WHIP and a respectable 14.2% K-BB%. Isolating the numbers to the bullpen alone yields even better results of a 3.11 ERA, third best, and a 1.25 WHIP. Even with a 9.7% K-BB% and the fourth-worst K% at just 19.8%, the relievers are getting the job done.

Star RHP Jacob deGrom comes to the mound for Texas with a 3-2 record in eight starts. He’s as good as ever with a 2.62 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 57 punchouts in 44.2 IP, sitting 90th percentile or better in fastball velocity (97.2 mph), chase rate (35.8%), whiff rate (32.9%), K% (32.8%) and BB% (4.6%). He’s a force to be reckoned with, though he gives up hard contact when opponents do put the wood on the ball.

Houston Astros

It’s been a miserable campaign for the Astros, who are once again dealing with injuries to a ton of key names. It seems the franchise may finally teeter on the brink of blowing it up for a rebuild at 18-28, but they’re somehow just four games shy of a Wild Card spot since the rest of the American League is largely uninspiring at best. The direction they go in should prove fascinating, but in the meantime, Houston’s 4.52 runs per game rank 11th behind a .745 OPS that’s good for fifth in baseball. The full slash line read .253/.329/.416 with a .162 ISO that’s seventh best, also tallying 55 homers so far. An 0.44 BB/K ratio is pedestrian but the Astros have kept strikeouts down fairly well with a 20.9% K%. That’s where the good news ends, frankly. This club is the only one with a staff ERA above 5.00 with a 5.47 mark, and a 1.56 WHIP is also worst in the sport. A 9.1% K-BB% sits third-to-last behind an MLB-worst BB% of 12.8% as well. Somehow, the bullpen numbers are even worse with a 5.81 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, also both at the bottom of the league.

For Houston, RHP Kai-Wei Tang makes his third start of the season. Across 15 total appearances, he’s just 1-3 but has a 3.12 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 23 strikeouts in 26 IP. His breaking pitches have been excellent, garnering a 98th-percentile grade in breaking run value.

Rangers vs. Astros pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rangers as -149 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Astros come in at +123 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at 7.5 combined runs between these sides.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-103)

This might be a bold pick given the state of the Houston bullpen, but it’s just so tough to trust the Rangers’ offense on any given night. They’re one of the lowest-scoring teams in the MLB and are fifth lowest in wOBA, also bringing an OPS of just .690 with runners in scoring position (that ranks 23rd among all clubs). Now, I don’t have to explain much on the front of why the Astros’ own offense may have some issues today given the matchup, but I’ll just point you to the recent production for reference. Again, injuries are the story of the season with Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers and Yainer Diaz all still sidelined while Carlos Correa won’t return this year. In May, the team’s OPS comes in at .654 with a .294 wOBA that ranks 21st. Things don’t look good for scoring, but the outlook for the under is great given the context of both teams.