Cincinnati has turned the first two nights in Queens into the same blunt lesson. The Reds are 29-25, have won three straight and five of six, and they have beaten the Mets by identical 7-2 scores to open this series. That is 14 runs on 24 hits in two games, folded into a six-game stretch with 35 runs and a lineup that keeps finding pressure after the first trip through the order. New York is 22-33 and playing with the heaviness of a team waiting for one swing to solve nine innings. The Mets have lost five straight, been outscored 24-6 during that skid, and gone six consecutive games without scoring more than two runs. Citi Field gets a warm late-May night, Juan Soto gives New York one obvious danger point, and Huascar Brazobán can make the first inning or two uncomfortable for Cincinnati. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the New York Mets and the Cincinnati Reds.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Mets vs. Reds prediction, preview

Andrew Abbott gives Cincinnati the sturdier place to start. His season line is 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, and the current form has been considerably sharper: 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his last four starts, trimming an ERA that sat at 6.59 earlier in the year. The seven-start window adds useful texture with a 2.98 ERA, 31 hits, 18 walks, 26 strikeouts and five HR allowed across 36.2 innings. There is traffic in the profile—1.35 WHIP in that stretch, a 10.5% walk rate, a 33.0% ground-ball rate, 89.1 mph average exit velocity allowed, 36.8% hard-hit rate, 6.4% barrel rate, .328 wOBA and .339 xwOBA—so this is a form-and-matchup bet more than a coronation. Abbott’s advantage comes from facing this specific Mets lineup in this specific moment. New York has a .223/.289/.355 line, .644 OPS, 14 HR, 41 walks and 128 strikeouts against left-handed pitching, and that weakness sits directly in front of a starter who has found a month-long run-prevention groove.

Soto is the one Met capable of detonating the handicap. He has slugged .923 with five HR over his last seven games, and his two-run homer Tuesday was the swing that kept New York from another blank offensive night. The rest of the card gives Abbott more room to work. Soto is only 12-for-55 against lefties this season, hitting .218/.295/.382 with two HR, seven RBI, six walks and 10 strikeouts in the split. Bo Bichette is the cleanest right-handed answer at .254/.323/.508 with four HR and 13 RBI against left-handers, but the lineup thins quickly after that. Marcus Semien is at .265/.327/.367 with one HR and three RBI in the split, Luis Torrens sits at .222/.276/.296, Brett Baty at .194/.306/.290, A.J. Ewing at .200/.294/.333, and MJ Melendez has yet to record a hit against lefties in a tiny sample. Carson Benge gives the top of the order contact and OBP, but the slugging punch around Soto has been too quiet to trust when the Mets have spent almost a full week trapped at two runs or fewer.

The Reds’ offense has a fuller route through nine innings, which matters with Brazobán opening. Brazobán has been excellent with a 1.73 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 19 strikeouts in 26 innings, 7.1 straight scoreless innings, 82.9 mph average exit velocity allowed, 22.2% hard-hit rate, 1.4% barrel rate, .228 wOBA and .258 xwOBA. His sinker/changeup shape can steal clean early outs. The Cincinnati case gets better once the game moves toward Jonah Tong and the bulk bridge. Tong’s first 2026 major-league look produced three hitless innings, but his larger résumé still carries volatility: 5.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 38 Triple-A innings this season, plus a previous 7.71 ERA across five major-league starts. Elly De La Cruz is the separator at the top of that equation, with 94.1 mph average exit velocity, 52.4% hard-hit rate, 14.9% barrel rate, .378 wOBA, .366 xwOBA, double-digit HR power and speed that turns ordinary traffic into pressure. Sal Stewart gives him a real partner with 12 HR, 35 RBI, an .830 OPS, 16.8% barrel rate, .378 xwOBA and a .346/.452/.615 last-seven burst. Spencer Steer adds a 13.9% barrel rate and .376 xwOBA, while Eugenio Suárez, Tyler Stephenson, JJ Bleday and Matt McLain give Cincinnati enough lower-order pressure to keep the game from becoming a two-batter ask.

Reds vs. Mets pick, best bet

The market shape makes the side cleaner than the run props. Reds team total over 3.5 asks for a tax at -140, and the alt over 4.5 has the right plus-money ceiling with a harder path through Brazobán’s opener window. The first-five board also gets messy because Cincinnati’s best offensive segment may arrive after the first turn through the order, when Tong is handling the middle innings and the Mets are asking their bullpen plan to hold the series together. Reds ML near -102 captures the better current team, Abbott’s matchup edge, New York’s lefty-split weakness, Cincinnati’s middle-inning access and a Reds bullpen that has been steadier over the past week. The Cincinnati relief group has a 1.98 ERA over the last seven days, with Pierce Johnson and Sam Moll giving the late innings usable form, while New York’s staff enters an opener/bulk setup with Sean Manaea carrying a heavy recent workload and Devin Williams still fighting an uneven season. A near-even price turns that full-game gap into the better wager.

Best bet: Reds ML (-102). Playable to -115. The risk is obvious: Soto gets Abbott with traffic aboard, Brazobán removes Cincinnati’s first couple of scoring chances, and Tong’s fastball gives the Mets enough bulk innings to turn this into a tight bullpen game. The stronger read still sits with Cincinnati. The Reds have produced seven runs in back-to-back games in this series, have the better offensive depth, have the starter in better form, and get a Mets lineup with too many cold spots around its one true heater. New York has scored six runs across a five-game losing streak. Cincinnati has the cleaner ways to reach a normal road win.

Final score projection: Reds 5, Mets 3.

Best bet: Reds (+100) at Mets

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