I think it’s safe to say that neither of these teams is happy with their current season.

The Red Sox start this series with the Blue Jays 11 games below .500, dead-last in the AL East. Garrett Crochet (shoulder), Roman Anthony (finger) and Trevor Story (hernia) are all on the IL. This is looking like a team that is going to be selling at this year’s deadline, even with the American League Wild Card still wide open.

Toronto has dealt with a similar slew of injuries, and while the club has spent the last month flirting with the .500 mark, a tough series loss to the Yankees this past weekend has the Jays’ record at an underwhelming 34-38. It’s a stark contrast to the magic that led this group to an AL Championship just last season.

Let’s preview this divisional battle and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview

If there has been a small ray of hope in 2026 for Red Sox fans and the team’s front office, it’s been the emergence of Payton Tolle at the MLB level. The former second-round pick turned heads last year when he shot through Boston’s minor league system to make his big league debut in late August, though the left-hander would mostly struggle with walks and the home run ball in his cup of coffee with the Red Sox. 2026 has been different. Tolle did not break Spring Training on the 26-man roster, yet he’s been Boston’s best starter since getting re-called in mid-April. Across nine starts and 53.1 innings, Tolle has maintained a 2.70 ERA and a 2.50 xERA. While you’d think his extreme fly ball tendencies (48.1%) would be a hard way to live at Fenway Park, Tolle’s been virtually impossible to barrel (4.9%), which means he’s only surrendered three total long balls. For reference, the rookie surrendered five home runs in only 16.1 innings in 2025. It’s been quite the turn around.

If Tolle’s been the Red Sox MVP, Dylan Cease has been the same in Toronto. The always durable RHP did miss a couple starts due to a brief stint on the IL, but other than that, Cease has been everything the Jays could have hoped for after signing him to a $210 million deal this past winter. Cease is throwing harder than he ever has before, yet he’s also relying on his fastball less than at any other point in his career. You could actually make the case that Cease’s changeup has been his best offering in 2026, as the pitch has a jaw-dropping 63.0% whiff rate. Cease has thrown the change 11.6% of the time this season. In 2025? He threw it just 37 times in 32 outings. Cease’s new unpredictability has helped him dominate MLB. Over 68.0 innings of work, the 30-year-old sports a 2.91 ERA and a 2.35 FIP — the fourth-lowest mark of any pitcher with 60 frames under their belt. Cease’s 36.8% strikeout rate sits in the 99th percentile of baseball.

If Cease does have an Achilles heel, it’s the frequent loss of his command. However, this might be the perfect matchup for the flame-throwing right-hander. The Red Sox have been MLB’s most aggressive lineup in June, sporting a league-high 51.2% swing rate in the month, along with a league-high 37.0% chase rate. The result? A microscopic 4.4% walk rate and an 88 wRC+. If the Jays can get a couple timely hits — which is a big ask, as the club ranks dead-last in OPS with RISP in 2026 — Cease should be able to lead his squad to victory on Tuesday evening.

Jays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet

Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-122)

The Red Sox seem to match up perfectly for Dylan Cease, while the Jays are clearly swinging the bats better than Boston at the moment. In the month, Toronto leads the AL in batting average (.279) and sits 10th in MLB in wRC+ (114).

Strong Lean: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Total Bases (+114)

It’s been a weird year for Vladdy, yet the first baseman still sports a massive .420 expected wOBA against LHPs in 2026. Guerrero also owns a career 1.018 OPS at Fenway Park. He loves hitting it over the Green Monster.