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Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals had been much-anticipated all season, after the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs played out four epic games during the regular season. Somehow, it exceeded expectations, going into double overtime, where the Spurs managed a 122-115 victory behind Victor Wembanyama’s 41-point, 24-rebound masterpiece.
Game 2 will tip off tonight at 8:40 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. It’s a critical game especially for the Thunder, who suddenly find themselves in what is effectively a 50-50 series.
San Antonio has a major injury question mark, as point guard De’Aaron Fox (ankle soreness) is questionable after missing Game 1 with the injury. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, has a completely clean injury report with the exception of rookie Thomas Sorber (torn ACL), who’s missed the entire season.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-238 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 217.5. The Spurs are +195 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s highly-anticipated affair.
Rarely has a player who led the league in defensive rebounding percentage and finished fourth in rebounds per game attracted social media criticism over not being menacing enough on the glass, but such are the standards that Wembanyama has set for himself. In these playoffs, though, he’s been utterly unstoppable on the boards, snagging 15 or more in five of his last seven games. Among players with at least 25 minutes per game these playoffs, he ranks second in total rebounding percentage, and since the start of the second round, he leads all players in rebound chances, rebounds, and contested rebounds per game. He’s always leveraged his seven-foot-three frame and eight-foot-wingspan to record blocks, but when the game calls for it, he’s also the most dominant glass-cleaner in basketball.
Oklahoma City isn’t built to stop him on the boards. The 2024-25 Thunder were the worst-rebounding team to win a championship since the 2012-13 Miami Heat, and the 2025-26 iteration ranked just 22nd in total rebounding percentage, while the other three teams in the conference finals ranked in the top 10. Oklahoma City has still been out-rebounded so far these playoffs, though it has allowed the fourth-fewest overall because of its slow pace. Plus, these teams allow the two lowest marks within five feet, so there should be plenty of short-range misses, leading to easy rebounding opportunities for Wembanyama. He should also have no trouble skying for rebounds over six-foot-five Alex Caruso, who was his primary matchup on both sides of the ball in Game 1.
Gilgeous-Alexander had a pitiful offensive performance for much of Game 1, as San Antonio held him to just four points on one-for-five shooting during the first half. However, hitting two three-pointers in an otherwise quiet third quarter proved critical in getting him going, and he scored 20 points combined between the second half and overtime to finish with a respectable 24. It was a similar performance to his effort in Game 3 of the second round against the Los Angeles Lakers, in which he was shooting inefficiently from inside the arc so countered with three-for-seven shooting from deep. The two-time MVP also finished his regular season by hitting two or more threes in each of his last three games.
The Spurs are occasionally prone to giving up three-pointers. Because getting all the way to the rack is such an unappealing proposition against Wembanyama and they rarely foul, opposing drivers will often kick it out to the perimeter, and they’ve given up the most corner threes these playoffs and the 10th-most during the regular season. They’ve also given up the fourth-most wide-open threes per game. To be fair, Gilgeous-Alexander gets too much attention to generate too many wide-open or corner threes (roughly one wide-open three and 0.4 corner threes per game so far these playoffs), but he’s converted both shots at a 50% clip, and two triples isn’t an incredibly high bar. He could also spend more time off the ball this series, given Castle’s defensive prowess and the fact that both Jalen Williams and Caruso are capable secondary ball handlers.
The 2025 second overall pick had a tremendous Game 1, playing 47 minutes in Fox’s absence and recording 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and seven steals, the most in a playoff game by a San Antonio player. All in all, he’s had at least 15 points in six of his 12 playoff games despite coming off the bench in all but Game 1, and he’s been ruthlessly efficient (53.8% from the field). Plus, the Spurs have been 3.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than off these playoffs despite his playing just half of his minutes alongside Wembanyama, a typical plus-minus boon. Even if Fox plays, Mitch Johnson has absolutely no reason to cut back on Harper’s role.
Of course, the Thunder are an extremely difficult matchup, as they led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and rank sixth so far these playoffs, but Harper won’t get the defensive attention that Wembanyama, Castle, or Fox will. In Game 1, Oklahoma City guarded Harper primarily with Ajay Mitchell, who ranks in just the 32nd percentile in points saved per 100 possessions so far these playoffs, and Harper made both of his shots while guarded by him. Plus, as a reserve, he’s more likely to spend time going against the Thunder’s backups, who — Caruso aside — are less impressive defensively.
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