The next few weeks will prove crucial for both the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros. The Guards just lost Jose Ramirez and another talented bat, and they’re fighting tooth and nail to stay around the top of the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Stros have showed surprising promise over the last month with 15 wins in their last 25 games as they fight their way back from below .500 in a weak division.

As the new series begins tonight at 8:10 p.m. ET, here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Guardians vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Guardians vs. Astros prediction, preview

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians got their 40th win of the year in their last contest and are no 40-35 overall. However, they still have a -7 run differential and a 4-6 record in their last 10 games, so there’s clearly work to be done. With just 3.97 runs per game, Cleveland averages the fourth fewest in baseball. The team’s OPS sits at .685, fourth-to-last, with a .229/.315/.370 slash line. Against right-handers like the one the club faces today, the Guardians have a .224/.310/.369 line for an OPS of .679, which is slightly worse than their numbers against southpaws. The Guardians also have just 70 home runs and an ISO of .141 that sits 26th, and a .271 BABIP is pretty rough, too. An already uninspiring offense may take an even greater hit with both Ramirez and Chase DeLauter out of the lineup for the foreseeable future, so it may be a rough few weeks coming up. If nothing else, an 0.50 BB/K ratio is a quality mark behind a 10.4% BB% and 21.0% K%, both top-10 numbers.

RHP Tanner Bibee starts tonight with a 2-7 record in 15 games. That poor record doesn’t fall entirely on him, though, since he holds a 3.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 71 Ks across 84.0 IP. His whiff and walk rates are above average, but he’s allowed high average exit velocity when he does get hit. The bullpen behind him is one of the MLB’s better units though, ranking 11th in ERA at 3.66 with a 1.28 WHIP and 16.8% K-BB%.

Houston Astros

Writing off the Astros may have been a bit premature. While still just 35-41 on the year with a -41 run differential, the club has weathered injuries and is now almost entirely whole. As mentioned in the intro, they’ve won 15 of their last 25 and are also 5-5 over the last 10 with a chance to continue building now that Hunter Brown is back in the rotation and Yainer Diaz is back at catcher. Houston averages 4.53 runs a night and has an OPS of .730 that ranks 11th in baseball. The slash line is .243/.318/.412 and is practically identical against RHP in particular at .243/.321/.408 for a .728 OPS. A .282 BABIP isn’t great, but with 99 home runs and a .169 ISO, the Astros have some power upside to make up for it. In terms of plate process, they have an 8.9% BB% and a 21.6% K% as well. When fully healthy, this is a high-upside unit that can’t be written off.

It’s RHP Tatsuya Imai as the starter tonight. The Japanese hurler has a 3-3 record with a 6.43 ER, 1.51 WHIP and 37 Ks in 35.0 IP. He brings a high ceiling but hasn’t accessed it often, delivering hot-and-cold performances so far and struggling greatly with his control at 15.3% on the BB%. The Astros’ bullpen has continued to improve, posting a 2.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last month after ranking 25th on the year at 4.72 with a 1.39 WHIP and 10.1% K-BB%.

Guardians vs. Astros pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -131 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Guardians are underdogs at +108 odds to win outright with the run total set at 8.5.

Best Bet: HOU Astros ML (+104)

Imai is perhaps one of the biggest wild-card pitchers in the MLB. He’s provided more bad than good in his first season stateside, but this isn’t necessarily an offense that’s likely to challenge him. The Guardians’ numbers this year are pretty poor and they’re worse against right-handers than they are against lefties, plus Houston’s bullpen has been quite good over the last month-plus. That’s a positive, and Bibee may not get much run support even if he has good night. The Astros are simply the better team at the plate. As long as their starter doesn’t implode, this should be a very winnable game.