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11 games between 22 teams make up Thursday’s MLB slate. For those looking to cash in quickly on a bet, nothing makes more sense than an NRFI. With that being said, there’s more to this one than meets the eye. Some pitchers thrive early, while others take more time to get settled in than others. Which NRFI picks are worth a closer look today?
Ahead of Thursday’s MLB contests, here are two NRFI bets worth placing on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Few teams have been better at hitting than the Diamondbacks, currently baseball’s ninth-highest scoring offense. With that being said, this group is far from a guarantee in the first, especially away from home. Arizona has a middling 25.0% YRFI rate on the road, 15th-best in the league. That’s not the most promising number heading into a matchup with Brandon Woodruff. Milwaukee’s staff ace owns a 3.77 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 23 strikeouts over 28.2 innings this season. Even more important, he owns a minuscule 2.17 first inning ERA over 17 starts since 2025. In his career, the veteran has been at his best inside the friendly confines of American Family Field (2.88 ERA).
To counter Woodruff, it’ll be breakout hurler Mike Soroka. Following a decent 2025 campaign in Washington and Chicago, the right-hander has emerged as a key piece in Arizona’s rotation. Over five appearances, he’s notched a 2.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 34 strikeouts. A 2.68 FIP suggests that this might not be fool’s gold, either. During 22 starts stretching back to last season, Soroka has posted a stellar 81.8% NRFI rating. In comparison, the Brewers rank 23rd in baseball this season with a 20.69% YRFI rate. Milwaukee has scored four runs or fewer in five of its last seven contests.
Our lone late game today takes place at Target Field in Minneapolis. There, Kevin Gausman will attempt to silence a surprisingly good Twins offense. Toronto’s veteran hurler remains one of the American League’s best. Over 35.0 frames, he’s accounted for a 2.57 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 38 strikeouts. As previously mentioned, the Twins have been one of the sport’s better lineups this month. However, they’ve scored three runs or less in five of their last six matchups. Gausman has yet to allow a first inning run through six outings this season.
Bailey Ober, to most fans, is the definition of a league-average starter. To be clear, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The sixth-year pro has been a stabilizing force in Minnesota’s rotation, eating up valuable innings. This season, he’s recorded a 3.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 27 strikeouts over six starts. The 30-year-old tends to open up games strong; since 2025, he owns a 3.00 first inning ERA. In addition, he’s posted a 75.7% NRFI rate through 33 starts over the last two seasons. The Blue Jays are averaging 3.75 runs per game on the road, sixth-lowest in baseball. Key hitters such as Alejandro Kirk (thumb) and Addison Barger (ankles) remain sidelined as well. Ober is poised for another unscathed first inning on Thursday night.
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