The Atlanta Braves are spiraling ever since losing superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to the IL. Now, they’ve dropped three straight outings and are at risk of suffering a sweep to the San Diego Padres, who have the worst offense in baseball. Can Atlanta bounce back with a much-needed win tonight, or will these contenders keep crashing for the moment? Find out with first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Braves vs. Padres matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Braves vs. Padres prediction, preview

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are still hovering within striking distance of the best record in baseball at 48-30. However, they’re 3-7 over their last 10 games and 11-14 without Ronald Acuna Jr., who remains sidelined due to a hamstring issue. They’re just 3-8 in 11 recent contests he missed, so it’s clear they’re not quite the same when he’s out of the lineup. The good news is that the pitching staff remains elite and the club still has a run differential of +95, averaging 4.91 runs a night this season. Atlanta slashes .252/.316/.418 for a .733 OPS that ranks seventh in the MLB, also generating a .166 ISO that sits seventh. They face a lefty tonight though, which may spell a little trouble since the lesser of their splits come against southpaws with a .246/.310/.414 line for a .724 OPS. Sure, that’s still quite solid and they have 35 of their 102 homers that way, but this lineup isn’t at its peak right now, either. Perhaps the biggest downfall of the club is a low BB/K ratio hamstrung by a 7.9% BB%, even with a nice 21.3% K%.

The Braves send LHP Martin Perez to the mound tonight with a 6-3 record in 15 appearances (11 starts). He boasts a 2.78 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP, though he lacks serious strikeout upside with just 56 across 68.0 IP. Atlanta’s bullpen is the most impressive in baseball with a 2.83 ERA that paces all clubs, plus a 1.10 WHIP and a 16.3% K-BB%.

San Diego Padres

Yes, the Padres are above .500 and second in the NL West at 41-37. No, it’s not easy to believe they’re a good baseball team, even despite a back-to-back wins over Atlanta in this series. The run differential of -8 on the year also doesn’t tell the full story, but consider that their 304 runs are the fewest in the sport for a moment. San Diego averages only 3.90 runs per game with 3.50 at home, so scoring doesn’t come easily by any means. The Friars rank dead last in plenty of offensive categories, including all three major slash categories (.220/.293/.364) and, of course, OPS (.657). They get to face a lefty tonight but are slashing only .221/.285/.349 in the split for a .634 OPS as well, hitting a mere 13 homers off of southpaws. They have 80 dingers on the year and are 24th in ISO at .144, too. If last year’s plate discipline carried over, perhaps the offense wouldn’t be so dry on a night-to-night basis. However, the Padres’ 23.2% K% is eighth-to-last and they have an 8.8% BB% for an 0.38 BB/K ratio.

The arms have bailed them out plenty this season, but there’s a new one on the mound tonight as JP Sears makes his season debut. Last year, he started 27 games with a 9-11 record, a 5.04 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and 117 strikeouts across 135.2 IP. The Padres’ bullpen is fantastic, though, earning the second-best ERA at 3.15 to go with a 1.23 WHIP and 15.7% K-BB%.

Braves vs. Padres pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Braves as -114 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Padres are -105 underdogs to win outright. The run total sits at 8.5 combined runs this evening.

Best Bet: ATL Braves ML (-114)

If there’s ever such a thing as a get-right spot, this is it for Atlanta. “They’ve dropped back-to-back games to San Diego though, why would we take the Braves on the Moneyline?” If you’re asking that, here’s your answer. Sears has been bad in Triple-A this season. I sometimes hate to write negative things about players, but man, he’s had a disastrous stint prior to this call-up. Sears has thrown 14 starts with 63.2 IP over that sample, pitching to the tune of a 7.92 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. Woof. He does have 62 strikeouts, but that’s just about the only positive to clean from the sample, over which he’s somehow gone 4-3. He also gave up at least seven hits and four earned runs in each of his last three starts, amassing an 11.77 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in June over the course of just 13.0 innings. The Braves’ bats aren’t hot, but they could get quite warm this evening against him.