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Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays prediction, pick for ...
Garion Thorne · 2026-06-23 · via DraftKings Network

Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros.

So… Why is the second game of this three-game weekday series being played at 4:07 p.m. ET? You can blame the World Cup, as Toronto Stadium (BMO Field to those not bound by FIFA’s sponsorship rights) will be hosting a match between Panama and Croatia at 7:00 p.m. ET. Apologies to anyone working a 9-5 shift. Apologies to anyone attempting to drive a car in downtown Toronto, too.

After a 4-2 victory on Monday, can the Jays keep rolling against the Astros? Let’s preview this American League clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview

For the first time since giving up an extra-inning home run to Will Smith in Game 7 of the World Series, Shane Bieber will take the mound wearing a Blue Jays uniform. The veteran was ramped up slowly in the offseason, as Bieber is still just two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Heck, this is a man who has only made nine MLB starts since the beginning of 2024. It’s been a rare occurrence to see him pitch. Bieber’s seven regular season outings with Toronto in 2025 were a bit of a mixed bag. While the veteran RHP maintained a 3.57 ERA and a 5.3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 innings, Bieber was also prone to serving up a meatball or two. In fact, Bieber’s 12.3% barrel rate was easily a career-worst mark, and it translated into the 31-year-old surrendering an underwhelming 1.79 opponent home runs per nine. It’s really anyone’s guess how he’ll fare this afternoon.

One thing possibly working in Bieber’s advantage is the status of Jeremy Pena, who was forced to leave Monday’s tilt after re-aggravating a prior hamstring issue in the top of the sixth inning. To say that Pena had been on fire in the month of June would be an understatement. The shortstop comes into Tuesday’s action slashing .304/.377/.507 with a 147 wRC+ in his past 18 games. Heck, Pena immediately showed his value to start yesterday’s contest, singling out off the leadoff spot and promptly scoring after a pair of stolen bases. The duo of Pena and Yordan Alvarez has been incredibly dangerous at the top of Houston’s lineup, yet it seems unlikely that the former will be available for this one.

Toeing the rubber for the Astros will be Peter Lambert. It’s been an interesting path to get to this point for the 29-year-old. Formerly a second-round pick of the Rockies, Lambert struggled with the altitude, posting an ERA hovering around 6.00 over parts of four seasons in Colorado. He then went to pitch for a year in Japan, before returning to MLB in 2026. It seems like that was a good choice. While Lambert has benefitted from a .238 opponent BABIP, the right-hander has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and a 3.52 xERA in 64.0 innings of work. He’s also directly on the heels of an amazing outing against the Tigers, where Lambert surrendered only one earned run and two hits over seven frames. He didn’t walk a batter in that appearance, as well. It’ll be interesting to see if he can slow down a Toronto lineup that produced multiple baserunners in seven of the eight innings they came to the plate on Monday evening.

Astros vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet

Best Bet: Peter Lambert 4+ Strikeouts (-134)

This just seems low. Lambert’s hit this prop in six of his last seven starts, and while the Jays are renowned as a low-strikeout team, they’ve been closer to league-average in June, ranking 19th in strikeout rate (21.0%) and fifth in chase rate (35.8%).

Strong Lean: Under 8.5 (-105)

Houston (.300) and Toronto (.298) sit 25th and 26th, respectively, in expected wOBA in the month of June. Neither lineup is setting the world ablaze at the moment, and the potential loss of Jeremy Pena (hamstring) wouldn’t help matters for the Astros. Lambert’s been good in 2026. Shane Bieber has a career 3.15 FIP. I’ll side with the starters.