Breaking down Tuesday’s WNBA matchup between the Golden State Valkyries and Phoenix Mercury, including a best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Golden State returns home after a tough stretch against some of the league’s best teams, and the matchup gets a little friendlier Tuesday night. The Valkyries host the Phoenix Mercury at 10:00 p.m. ET, with Golden State listed as 8.5-point favorites and the total sitting at 162.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s get into it!
The Valkyries have lost three of their last five games, but the record doesn’t tell the whole story. Two of those losses came against Minnesota and Las Vegas, and both were one-possession games late. Before that, Golden State handled Portland by 18 points. This team is still doing what it does best: defending.
The Valkyries are allowing just 80.5 points per game, the third-best mark in the league, and continue to slow games down better than anyone. Their press creates chaos, they force teams to play uncomfortable basketball, and they rarely let opponents dictate the pace. Gabby Williams has been a huge reason why. She just dropped a career-high 27 points against Las Vegas and continues to be exactly the addition Golden State hoped for. She’s leading the team in scoring while averaging 1.8 steals per game and remains one of the most disruptive defenders in the league.
Phoenix finally stopped the bleeding last week, snapping a six-game losing streak with wins over Seattle and Portland. Natasha Mack played a big role in both victories, while DeWanna Bonner stepped up offensively against Portland. The wins were important, especially considering Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper both missed time with injuries.
Still, this feels like a much tougher matchup. The Mercury are averaging just 81.7 points per game and continue to rely heavily on veteran execution rather than explosive offense. Five players average double figures, which helps create balance, but there isn’t a consistent perimeter shooting threat that forces defenses to stretch. That’s a problem against a Golden State team that wants to slow the game down and make every possession a grind. And if there’s one thing the Valkyries have proven this season, it’s that they’re comfortable winning ugly.
Phoenix deserves credit for winning two straight, but this is a major step up in defensive competition. Golden State’s style is built to frustrate offenses like this, and the Valkyries should be able to create enough separation at home.
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