The Minnesota Timberwolves picked up a Game 1 win in San Antonio, but the Spurs responded by winning back-to-back games to take a 2-1 series lead. Game 4 will take place in Minnesota on Sunday, which will be the most pivotal matchup of the series.

The Spurs enter as 5.5-point favorites with -192 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves are +160 underdogs, with the game total set at 217.5 points.

You can check out the full pick and prediction for the matchup on DraftKings Network here, but let’s take a look at a pair of prop bets with value in the crucial game.

Spurs at Timberwolves Best Prop Bets:

Julius Randle Under 16.5 Points (-102)

Julius Randle is a key fabric of this Timberwolves team, but this is a tough matchup for his skillset. Randle is coming off back-to-back 12-point performances and is shooting just 35.7% from the field and 18.2% from beyond the three-point arc in this series. Victor Wembanyama’s looming presence continues to prove problematic, and Randle has not found a clear way to get to his spots as a scorer. He still has been a positive on the glass, defensively, and as a playmaker, but this is not the series for Randle to light up the score sheet.

Across the playoffs overall, Randle is averaging 17.8 points per game. This is a notable dip from the 21.1 points per game he averaged across the regular season. He has been held under 16.5 points in five of the nine games overall in the postseason.

Expect Randle’s energy to be more dedicated to continuing to make an impact on the defensive end, and for others to need to fill the scoring role. It is tough to find a pathway for him to increase his efficiency in this matchup, given the quality of defense, and expect the 16.5 point total to be too ambitious. Expect Randle to fall short of this number for the third straight game and sixth time in the postseason tonight. 

Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+143)

Three-point attempts are a bit of a polarizing topic when it comes to Victor Wembanyama. In some regard, it is letting the opposing team off the hook when he settles for these shots, given his unique size and skill advantage. However, these perimeter looks are also unguardable, and the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year is capable of getting red-hot from this area of the floor.

On the season overall, Wembanyama shot 34.9% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.5 perimeter shots per game. Since the playoffs started, he has connected on 36.4% on his long-range shots while attempting 4.7 perimeter shots per game. The former first overall pick opened up the postseason by shooting 5-for-6 from deep, then largely struggled on these looks. He shot 0-for-8 from deep in Game 1 of this series, 2-for-7 in Game 2, and 3-for-5 in the previous victory.

Rudy Gobert is able to match his fellow Frenchman’s size and shot-blocking presence better than any other player in the league. Expect this to continue forcing Wembanyama to the perimeter and for him to continue letting it fly. He is playing with a high level of confidence right now, and Minnesota will be willing to concede these attempts. I am encouraged by the level of volume of three-point looks he has shown in this series, and think the confidence carries over for him to hit over 2.5 three-pointers tonight.