Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for today’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Monday’s best hitter props start with a broader offensive mandate: find bats with more than one way to make the box score bend. Sal Stewart brings barrel-rate violence into a 3+ total bases ladder against Walker Buehler’s contact leakage. Junior Caminero owns enough raw impact to make two total bases feel modest inside the dome. Brice Turang and Jeremy Peña attack hits, runs, and RBI through lineup geometry, with both sitting in front of scoring pockets that can turn one clean swing into multiple events. Adolis García supplies the uncomfortable upside, carrying premium exit velocity into a matchup with Patrick Corbin’s hard-contact permission slip. This is a slate for doubles, crooked innings, run conversion, and the kind of price hunting that does not ask every hitter to be perfect.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice 2+ total bases | +135 | Rice’s 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 50.3% hard-hit rate, and 16% barrel rate give him double-or-homer paths against Parker Messick, whose barrel suppression makes total bases a sharper play than chasing one swing over the wall. |
| Bryce Harper 2+ total bases | -110 | Harper’s 13.7% barrel rate, .413 expected wOBA, and 44.5% hard-hit rate meet Max Scherzer’s .417 wOBA allowed, .396 expected wOBA allowed, and 13.8% barrel rate allowed, creating a clean extra-base setup for Philadelphia’s best damage bat. |
| Nick Kurtz 3+ HRR | -120 | Kurtz’s 94.4 mph average exit velocity, 57.7% hard-hit rate, 18.9% barrel rate, and top-order role fit perfectly with Brandon Sproat’s 6.17 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 12.1% walk rate, and Las Vegas’ absurd run environment. |
| Willy Adames 2+ total bases | +135 | Adames brings enough pull-side lift and recent power to attack Foster Griffin, whose 12.4% barrel rate allowed, .442 expected slugging allowed, and 4.35 expected ERA give San Francisco’s cleanup bat a real double-or-homer lane. |
| Brandon Marsh 3+ HRR | +145 | Marsh brings a 90.5 mph average exit velocity, 47.6% hard-hit rate, .381 wOBA, .344 expected wOBA, and .878 OPS into a combo market that fits his current shape, while Max Scherzer’s .417 wOBA allowed, .396 expected wOBA allowed, 13.8% barrel rate allowed, 89.1 mph exit velocity allowed, and 9.64 ERA put Philadelphia’s left-handed traffic in position to turn one hit into three combined events. |
In-depth analysis below.
Rice brings the kind of contact quality that makes 2+ total bases playable even against a starter limiting home-run damage. His profile carries premium left-handed thunder: 92.4 mph average exit velocity, a 50.3% hard-hit rate, a 16% barrel rate, a .430 wOBA, and a .396 expected wOBA. That is enough force for multiple paths. Rice can clear this on one double, one homer, or two balls through the infield if the Yankees give him top-order volume. Parker Messick has been difficult to lift against, with a 2.40 ERA, 78 strikeouts, and only 6.2% barrels allowed, so this prop fits Rice better than a pure home-run chase. The best version of the bet leans into Rice’s full damage range. He has the bat speed to punish a missed heater, the opposite-field strength to turn firm contact into extra bases, and the lineup spot to see four plate appearances if the Yankees keep traffic moving. His expected numbers remain too loud for this price.
Harper’s matchup against Max Scherzer puts one of the slate’s strongest extra-base profiles against one of its loudest pitcher-risk sheets. Harper enters with a 13.7% barrel rate, .413 expected wOBA, .375 wOBA, 44.5% hard-hit rate, and enough plate discipline to wait for the pitch he wants. That approach matters against Scherzer, who has allowed a .417 wOBA, .396 expected wOBA, 13.8% barrel rate, and elevated contact that keeps doubles and homers firmly in play. Harper can clear this with one swing, but the appeal runs deeper than homer equity. He has the left-handed leverage to drive the ball into either gap, and Philadelphia’s lineup gives him traffic in front and protection behind. Scherzer’s name still carries weight, yet the current contact profile points toward mistakes in dangerous areas. Harper’s 2+ total bases prop captures the damage without needing a full Phillies rally or a ball to leave the yard. His expected slugging quality makes the number playable.
Kurtz gets the best run-environment setup on the slate, and 3+ combined hits, runs, and RBI gives him every way to profit from it. His individual profile is outrageous: 94.4 mph average exit velocity, 57.7% hard-hit rate, 18.9% barrel rate, .418 wOBA, and .400 expected wOBA. That is middle-order damage from a hitter projected near the top of an A’s lineup playing in Las Vegas heat. Brandon Sproat brings the correct target profile, with a 6.17 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 12.1% walk rate, .380 wOBA allowed, .361 expected wOBA, 43.4% hard-hit rate, and 9.9% barrel rate. The environment adds more volatility in Kurtz’s favor. Las Vegas Ballpark has been playing like a launchpad, and the A’s offense has already shown how quickly this matchup can turn crooked. Kurtz can get there with a double and a run, a walk and two RBI chances, or one violent swing. His batted-ball quality and lineup context fit the combo market perfectly.
Adolis García is the uncomfortable price swing, which is often where total bases get interesting. His season line is not pretty enough to invite casual money, but the batted-ball profile still carries the kind of impact needed for a 3+ total bases ticket. García has a 92.5 mph average exit velocity, 48.3% hard-hit rate, 38.4% sweet-spot rate, and 9.1% barrel rate. The results have lagged the force, and that is why the number is still north of +300. Patrick Corbin gives the matchup its oxygen. He has allowed 89.3 mph average exit velocity, a 44.1% hard-hit rate, .341 wOBA, .356 xwOBA, and a 7.9% barrel rate. That is enough contact permission for García to reach this with a double and a single, a gap shot into the wall, or one elevated mistake. Rogers Centre roof status still matters more than Toronto’s outdoor forecast, but this play does not require a cartoonish hitting environment. It requires García to square Corbin once with authority and add one more useful ball in play. At +315, the market is still pricing the discomfort more heavily than the contact ceiling.
Jeremy Peña’s 4+ HRR case is built on lineup structure, not slugger theater. He is the first valve in Houston’s best scoring pocket, and that matters against a starter whose current form has created traffic before the damage even arrives. Peña’s own Statcast page is more useful for on-base and conversion than raw impact: .348 wOBA, .366 xwOBA, a 37.7% sweet-spot rate, and enough bat-to-ball stability to keep him connected to the inning. The power indicators are modest, with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 4.5% barrel rate, which is exactly why this belongs in HRR instead of total bases. Grayson Rodriguez gives the ladder its pressure point. He has allowed a .423 wOBA, .429 xwOBA, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 45.2% hard-hit rate, and 12.9% barrel rate, so Houston’s top order should have chances to stack events. Peña can cash this without a heroic swing: single, run, RBI, another run, or two times on base in one crooked inning. At +235, this is a volume-and-conversion bet with the right opponent profile.
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