All season long, the prevailing narrative has been that the Western Conference is significantly stronger than the East. That might only be true at the tops of the conferences, though; while the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs have clearly been the two best-performing teams these playoffs, every East series has reached a sixth game, only the fourth time that that has happened in either conference since 2003.

The first East series could finally conclude at 7 p.m. ET tonight, when the Atlanta Hawks host the New York Knicks in a pivotal Game 6, a closeout opportunity for the Knicks.

Each team has one player on the injury report. For New York, starter Josh Hart (back) is questionable, and Hawks backup center Jock Landale (ankle) remains out, as he has all series.

The Knicks are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-155 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 213.5. Atlanta is +130 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential elimination game and offer a prediction.

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks preview, prediction

It hasn’t been the smoothest series for New York, but comfortable victories in Games 4 and 5 have the Knicks feeling confident. After relatively quiet performances in the first four games of the series, Jalen Brunson finally proved his bona fides as the team’s captain in Game 5 by dropping an efficient 39 points, and Karl-Anthony Towns has produced what has arguably been the best playoff series of his career (20.0 points, 11.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game on 59-47-90 shooting splits). If Brunson and Towns can repeat their Game 5 performances and Mikal Bridges (7.2 points per game on 50.0% effective field goal percentage) can produce something, New York should be in a strong position to close the series out tonight.

The Hawks have been even more inconsistent on a game-to-game basis. CJ McCollum opened the series with three tremendous games, hitting the game winner in both Games 2 and 3, but he’s slowed down with more muted output in Games 4 and 5. Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker haven’t been able to pick up the slack, as Johnson has shot inefficiently from three-point range and Alexander-Walker inefficiently from inside the arc. Dyson Daniels and Jonathan Kuminga have both had multiple solid games and multiple stinkers.

Knicks at Hawks pick, best bet

The Knicks have had a massive advantage on the interior so far this series because Atlanta really hasn’t been able to stop them from getting downhill. They’ve attempted 2.2 more shots per game within five feet than any of the other 15 playoff participants, and while they’ve neither finished nor protected the rim very well, they’ve still averaged some 6.6 more points in the paint per game than the Hawks, which is a pretty sizable gap. Plus, if anything, New York’s rim protection and finishing are both likely to improve, given that it allowed the seventh-lowest percentage within five feet during the regular season.

The Knicks have also dominated the glass, taking advantage of both Okongwu’s size (six-foot-10) and Landale’s absence to win the rebounding battle in all five games so far. Their advantage could slip some without Hart, the best pound-for-pound rebounder in basketball, but they actually had a higher rebounding percentage with him off the court during the regular season. They’ve each recorded exactly 69 turnovers, but in a stark reversal of the regular season, New York has actually been better at taking advantage of transition and fast-break opportunities. The Knicks have also attempted 4.8 more free throws per game. Atlanta’s struggles to draw contact are critical because they allow the foul-prone Towns to stay on the court.

Shooting variation could bring the Hawks back into the game. They’ve done an excellent job closing out on shooters, limiting New York to 5.0 fewer wide-open three-point attempts per game than any other team and 9.6 fewer than they’ve generated offensively. The issue is that the Knicks have been clinical on such shots, nailing them at a 46.3% rate, and Atlanta has shot 34.8%, significantly worse than the 39.1% that it shot in the regular season. It would make some sense for New York to have a slight shooting advantage, given that it ranked fourth in three-point percentage during the regular season and the Hawks fifth, but that edge certainly shouldn’t be as extreme as it has been so far this series.

With some inevitable variation in shooting luck, Atlanta should be able to make this game much closer than the 29 points that it lost by in Game 5, and if Hart ends up not suiting up, the Hawks might have a slightly easier time rebounding and finishing. Ultimately, though, the X-factor is Towns: Okongwu ranked in just the 33rd percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions during the regular season, and so far, Towns has done an excellent job punishing his weaknesses. Collectively, Daniels and Alexander-Walker can make life difficult for Brunson, and McCollum might be more effective if Hart ends up sitting, but Atlanta simply has no answer for Towns.

Best bet: New York Knicks -4.5 Alternate Spread (+109)