Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Wednesday’s FIFA World Cup match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar.
If the World Cup still followed a 32-team format in which only the top two teams in each group advanced to the knockout stage, both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar would have effectively been eliminated from the World Cup, needing a win and a massive goal difference swing in order to advance to the knockout stages.
However, since the eight best third-place teams will advance to the knockout stages in addition to the top two teams, the winner of Wednesday’s 3 p.m. ET match between the Dragons and the Maroons is almost guaranteed to advance in third. A draw would likely send both teams home.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is a -255 favorite to claim the pivotal three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Qatar is +650. There are +425 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this Group B elimination match and provide my favorite bet.
Both teams impressed in their opening matches, as the Dragons were in position to take all three points against Canada until the match’s dying moments and the Maroons earned their first-ever World Cup point by equalizing by netting from a header in the 94th minute. Unfortunately, though, it came undone for both sides on Matchday 2. Bosnia and Herzegovina held Switzerland scoreless until the 74th minute, but Nati managed four goals in the final 16 minutes plus stoppage time to win 4-1. Qatar’s defeat was more thorough; the Maroons gifted the Reds their first win in the World Cup, falling 6-0 and picking up two red cards, the second for Assim Madibo’s challenge that broke Canada midfielder Ismael Koné’s leg. Left-back Homam Ahmed registered the assist in the opener, so his suspension could have a particularly outsized impact on Qatar’s chances of winning.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has more high-profile names on its roster, as even though legend Edin Džeko has barely played this tournament, Jovo Lukić — who scored the opener against the Reds — won the Romanian league’s Golden Boot award this past season. Additionally, youngster Ermin Mahmić registered 10 goal contributions in Czechia this past season and scored with his only touch of this tournament so far. All in all, the Dragons have been fairly quiet in the attack, managing only 0.59 shots on target per 90 minutes, and they haven’t completed passes at a very high rate. Still, one goal could be enough if Bosnia and Herzegovina’s defense continues to play as well as it has, the late flurry against Nati aside. The Dragons have also been among the best teams at winning aerial duels, and they’ve had more clearances than any other team. They also press relatively frequently. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s biggest question is discipline: it has committed the most fouls of any team through two days of matches, and it has made among the most errors leading to a shot.
Still, as imperfect as the Dragons are, the Maroons might well be the worst team in the competition. Most of their players aren’t well-known to casual fans, as all but one plays in Qatar’s top division, but Akram Afif made somewhat of a name for himself by dishing out 11 assists throughout Asian qualifying and Almoez Ali, who hasn’t yet played in this tournament, led all of Asian qualifying in goals. Overall, the Maroons have produced the fourth-fewest expected goals and attempted the fewest shots, completing passes at the second-lowest rate, both overall and in the final third. Unlike Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar hasn’t made up for it defensively, conceding the most shots and expected goals per match of any team this competition while forcing the second-fewest high turnovers. In fairness, the Maroons have won a majority of their ground duels, and they haven’t fouled all that frequently, but that’s just about the only positives they’ve produced so far.
Despite how poor the Dragons looked towards the end of their match against Switzerland, their defense is talented enough that I find it hard to see Qatar putting one past Nikola Vasilj. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s indiscipline could be a problem against stronger teams later in the competition, but the Maroons have produced among the fewest expected goals from set pieces. Additionally, while their lone goal was a header, the man who provided that pass is suspended, and the Dragons have the tallest roster in the competition and one of its highest win rates on aerial duels. I like a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Bosnia and Herzegovina to set up a matchup (likely) with the United States in the Round of 32.
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