Best MLB prop bets today for April 16, 2026. Top picks include Pirates team total, Parker Messick strikeouts, and Brewers F5 over.
Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong spots to target on the April 16 slate, with a mix of pitching regression, strikeout upside, and early offense angles. The Pirates are in a great position against a starter due for regression and one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Parker Messick draws a strikeout-friendly matchup against the Orioles, and the Brewers get a favorable spot against Patrick Corbin early in the game. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets on the board.
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Let’s break down why these stand out on today’s slate.
Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
At first glance, it may look as if the Pirates are in for a tough afternoon against Nationals starter Foster Griffin. His 1.76 ERA through three starts looks impressive, right? Well, that’s why we have advanced stats, because they paint a more accurate picture. Griffin is due for some major regression, as he owns an xERA of 5.11 and a FIP of 4.66. Quite a jump from his 1.76 ERA! He throws several pitches but mainly focuses on a cut fastball and a four-seam. The Pirates have been exceptional against the four-seam, with today’s expected lineup combining for a .351 wOBA and a .178 ISO against it from lefties since last season.
Once Griffin departs, he’ll give way to one of the worst bullpens in the majors to this point. The Nationals’ bullpen has been just as bad as advertised with a combined 6.17 ERA, an xERA of 6.01 and a 2.1 HR/9. The weather will be perfect for hitting, with temperatures in the 80s and winds blowing out toward left field.
We briefly saw Messick in the Guardians rotation last year, and he was great through seven starts. He’s carried that over to 2026 and has only allowed one earned run through 17.2 innings. It’s even more impressive when you factor in that those starts have come against the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers. He’s also averaging just under a strikeout per inning and is in a great spot to rack some up tonight against the Orioles.
The Orioles haven’t faced many lefties thus far, logging the second-fewest plate appearances against them. Even still, the team has combined for over a 23% K% against them. If you go back to last season, the Orioles’ expected lineup for tonight struck out at a 28% rate against lefties. Messick has recorded at least five strikeouts in each of his three starts this season, and I believe he could set a new season-high against this lineup. This line could move quickly as the day goes on
I’m surprised we’re getting plus money on this team total. Sure, we only get the first five innings to go over, but Corbin looked abysmal in his first start in 2026. The Twins tagged him for four runs on six hits, including two home runs, through four innings. It could have been even worse as he owned an xERA of 15.10 in that start.
Now, to be fair, the Brewers haven’t gotten off to a great start against lefties. But it’s still early, and these numbers, especially against lefties, fluctuate a lot. The Brewers have been very patient and own a 13.4% BB%, which is the second-best in the league. If they can get some traffic on the bases, good things will happen against Corbin. I’m willing to bet on how poor Corbin looked over what the Brewers have done, or not done, against lefties thus far.
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Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
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