The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder have taken a 2-1 series lead over the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

It has been a thrilling battle between these two legitimate title contenders. But injuries have impacted this Spurs team, although no player is listed on the injury report for San Antonio tonight. It will be an all-hands-on-deck effort to avoid the 3-1 series hole tonight. It was a statement win by the defending champions in Game 3, with Oklahoma City showcasing its depth as several of its role players continued to step up. 

Looking at the odds for Game 4, the Spurs enter as narrow 2.5-point favorites and hold -142 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Thunder hold +120 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 219.5 points.

Spurs at Thunder preview

After building an incredible young core of talent, the Spurs have arrived on the contending stage. Inexperience has been their biggest criticism, but San Antonio’s young core has looked unbothered by the weight of the moment at every step of the way. The Spurs joined the Thunder as the lone two teams in the NBA to win 62+ games in the regular season, finishing 62-20 overall to earn the second seed in the Western Conference. They defeated the Trail Blazers in five games in the opening round and took down the Timberwolves in six games to reach this stage. On the season overall, the Spurs are 55-40-2, and the game total is 46-51 to the over/under.

De’Aaron Fox has missed the opening two games of this series due to a right ankle sprain, but made his return for Game 3. He might have tweaked the same ankle, but continued to battle through it and is not mentioned on the injury report tonight. Dylan Harper suffered an adductor injury that caused him to leave Game 2. He was limited to 17 minutes in Game 3, but is also not listed on the injury report tonight. The injury issues of these two guards have left a major workload on Stephon Castle’s shoulders, who has struggled with turnover issues across this series.

Victor Wembanyama headlines the production for San Antonio. The first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year posted averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks across the regular season and 22.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks per game across the postseason. Castle, Fox, and Harper are vital to the attack, while players like Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, and Carter Bryant each play key roles.

Across the regular season, the Spurs averaged 119.8 points per game, which ranked third in the NBA. They also ranked fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field-goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which ranks eighth in the league. It also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.

After getting over the championship hump last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder hold the same intentions. They cruised to an NBA-best 64-18 record across the regular season, and swept the opening two playoff matchups against the Suns and Lakers. Oklahoma City is six wins away from becoming the first team since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018 to repeat as champions. On the season overall, the Thunder have gone 46-47 against the spread, and the game total is 52-41 to the over/under.

Ajay Mitchell is the latest member of the Thunder to join the injury report and will miss tonight’s game due to a calf strain. Jalen Williams made his return from his hamstring strain in Game 1, but left Game 2 after just seven minutes and missed Game 3 due to left hamstring soreness. Williams is listed as questionable for tonight. Thomas Sorber is the lone other player on the injury report as he continues to recover from his ACL surgery.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second consecutive MVP after posting averages of 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game across the regular season. He is leading all scorers in the postseason with 28.5 points per game, along with 8.3 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game. Gilgeous-Alexander was limited to 24 points in Game 1 on an uncharacteristic 7-for-23 shooting, but bounced back with 30 points in Game 2 and finished with 26 points and 12 assists in the previous game. The Thunder also count on Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain to play key roles for the team.

The Thunder closed the regular season ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring at 119.0 points per game. Oklahoma City also ranks seventh in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Thunder rank second in opponent points per game at 107.9 per game, first in defensive rating, first in opponent field-goal percentage and 25th in opponent three-point percentage.

Game 1-3 Takeaways

Game 1 of this series was the type of game that made you remember why the NBA Playoffs are so electric. These were the two biggest heavyweights in the NBA all season, and each threw their best punch in the series opener.

Neither team was able to extend a lead by more than 10 points across the Game 1 matchup. San Antonio held control for 81% of the game, while Oklahoma City only led for 7% of the matchup. Both teams had some shooting struggles, and the starters were forced to log workloads beyond what they are accustomed to.

The biggest matchup takeaways of Game 1 all have to do with Victor Wembanyama. The Thunder opted to primarily face-guard him with Alex Caruso, who did a solid job despite how the raw stats look. Oklahoma City also made a conscious effort to space the floor, launching 45 three-point attempts to pull Wembanyama away from the rim to limit his shot-blocking impact. This is a matchup loaded with high-level talent, but Wembanyama shined as the brightest star when push came to shove to lead his team to the win.

It was a different story in Game 2, as Oklahoma City returned to the necessary level of intensity for playoff basketball. The Thunder stretched the lead to as many as 13 and led for 80% of the matchup. They forced 21 turnovers from the Spurs, and Gilgeous-Alexander stepped up during the home stretch of the game. The Thunder ultimately produced a 122-113 win to even up the series.

Game 3 was the most convincing victory of the series. The Thunder tallied a 123-108 win to take a 2-1 series advantage. Both teams took 15+ point leads, but Oklahoma City was able to dig out of their early 15-0 deficit and largely controlled the game from there. Both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper deserve credit for battling through pain to be on the floor, but neither looked like the best version of themselves. In contrast, the Thunder got strong performances from their depth, highlighted by a 24-point performance from Jared McCain off the bench. The Spurs shot just 43% from the field and 32% from beyond the three-point arc, looking like they ran out of gas at the end.

Thunder at Spurs Game 4 prediction, pick

While the Knicks have made their case of late as well, the Thunder and Spurs have looked like the two best teams in basketball for the bulk of the season. San Antonio made a statement in Game 1, going into enemy territory to pick up the series opening win. But Oklahoma City showed its championship experience by bouncing back with a pair of wins and is now in the driver’s seat of the series.

Tonight will be the largest test of their inexperience. Injuries will also continue to be a factor. It feels as if two of the three key guards are healthy enough to play to the necessary level; the Spurs can go toe-to-toe with the defending champions. But it was a bit concerning to see Fox in visible pain and Harper playing limited minutes in Game 2. Both are expected to join Castle on the court tonight, but what level they will be at is the greater question. This is also not to fully brush aside the injury concerns for the Thunder, as Jalen Williams is questionable, and Ajay Mitchell has become a key part of this Oklahoma City team.

The Spurs went 32-8 at home across the regular season. They are 4-2 at home across the playoffs, and are 26-20 against the spread in home games across the entire season. The back-to-back losses in the past two games are the first time that the Spurs have lost back-to-back matchups in the postseason. It happened five times across the regular season, but San Antonio never dropped two in a row.

The Spurs have looked ahead of their expected timeline all year, and met the weight of the moment at every stage. Expect them to have one more in the tank tonight. There still is no answer for Victor Wembanyama, and the Spurs must do a better job getting him the ball in favorable places. San Antonio’s 31.7% three-point percentage in Game 3 also marked their fifth-worst perimeter shooting effort of the postseason. Expect some positive regression in this category, although it is worth noting the Spurs shot just 30.2% from deep in the Game 1 win.

Ultimately, these are two teams that are fairly neck-and-neck in terms of talent, even if the Thunder are further along in their progression. San Antonio has been resilient and successful at defending their home court all year. Expect them to have enough production for another win and avoid the 3-1 series hole. Teams that go down 2-1 after losing at home in Game 3 are 23-7 straight up as the home favorite and 18-11-1 against the spread in Game 4’s.

Expect the Spurs to put their resiliency on display one more time and even up the series tonight. Back San Antonio to return to their expected level of performance and get back to what worked in the season-opener. Count on Wembanyama to lead the charge on both sides of the ball and do whatever is necessary to lift San Antonio to a win by over the narrow 2.5-point spread.

Best Bet: San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-115)