The Main Event of this week’s UFC Fight Night comes in the Featherweight division as No. 7 Arnold Allen takes on surging contender No. 12 Melquizael Costa in a five-round contest. Allen enters this fight with a 20-4 record, as Costa is 26-7 in his career. This event begins with the Main Event at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Check out my best bet for Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa, below.

Melquizael Costa Moneyline (+105)

From August 2014 to October 2022, Allen won 12 consecutive fights, with 10 of them coming in the UFC. Allen looked like a future title challenger, but has since gone 1-3 in his last four fights and has struggled against elite competition at 145 pounds. Allen returned to the Octagon against Jean Silva at UFC 324 after 18 months away from the sport. His last victory came in July 2024 at UFC 304 against Giga Chikadze. 

His opponent, Costa, is one of the hottest Featherweight fighters, and he is currently on a six-fight winning streak. He has won four of his last six fights by submission or knockout and last beat Dan Ige in February. Although Ige is a talented veteran, Allen is Costa’s toughest test to date.

In this contest, Allen is a -125 favorite with Costa a +105 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds with the over being -145.

Costa is the better all-around fighter in this contest, and if he can mix in a few takedowns, he should be able to find success. Allen has been passive in the Octagon recently, and he could get frustrated by Costa’s fast-paced, quirky style.