Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for Monday’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Tonight’s HRR card is built like the smarter cousin of the home run card: still hunting damage, but letting lineup slot, traffic, speed, run environment and RBI geography do more of the work. Three HRR can cash through one swing, a double with runners on, a hit-plus-run night, or a table-setting inning that keeps rolling behind the hitter. That means the target profile is different from a pure HR prop. The best names are attached to the whole inning: top-half bats with plate-appearance security, players with enough thump to shortcut the math, and hitters in game environments where one mistake can turn into two or three scoring events fast.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Elly De La Cruz is the best all-around HRR profile left on the card because the number can land in several different ways. He is confirmed batting second for Cincinnati at Citizens Bank Park, with the game sitting in a hitter-friendly weather pocket: 92 degrees and 18 mph wind. The top-half slot matters because Elly’s HRR path is plate appearances plus chaos. He enters with a .302 average and .386 wOBA on the board, and the underlying contact profile has taken the leap: 94.2 mph average exit velocity, 52.6% hard-hit rate, 15.5% barrel rate, 36.8% sweet-spot rate, 12 doubles, 11 HR and 57 hits across 189 at-bats. Andrew Painter brings the right kind of leakage for this threshold, too: 6.21 ERA, 4.99 xERA, .377 wOBA allowed, .350 xwOBA allowed, .473 xSLG allowed and a 10.5% barrel rate allowed.
Sal Stewart is the more volatile Reds piece, but the price works because his batted-ball profile is built for a three-event threshold. He is confirmed hitting fifth, which adds a small plate-appearance tax compared to Elly, but it also puts him in a run-production pocket behind McLain, Elly, Spencer Steer and JJ Bleday. That matters when the opposing starter is Andrew Painter, whose 2026 Statcast line shows a 6.21 ERA, 4.99 xERA, .276 xBA allowed, .473 xSLG allowed, .377 wOBA allowed and 10.5% barrel rate allowed. Stewart’s surface line undersells the quality underneath: .243 average, .337 OBP, .458 slugging, .348 wOBA, .376 xwOBA, .511 xSLG and .215 ISO. The barrel piece is the selling point. Stewart owns a 17.2% barrel rate, 35.7% sweet-spot rate and 90.5 mph average exit velocity, giving him a clean extra-base/RBI route even from the five-hole. The 92-degree Citizens Bank setup gives the ball life, and one double with traffic can put him almost all the way there.
CJ Abrams is the best price-to-role piece on the card. Washington’s projected lineup has him in the cleanup spot, with James Wood, Luis García and José Tena ahead of him, so the RBI path is obvious before getting to his own scoring path. The game environment helps: Nationals Park is listed at 93 degrees with 13 mph wind, and Abrams brings a much louder 2026 profile than the market sometimes prices. He is projected with a .298 average and .390 wOBA, while Statcast has him at a .399 wOBA, .363 xwOBA, .469 xSLG, .232 ISO, 10.7% barrel rate, 40.2% hard-hit rate and 17.4-degree average launch angle. Christian Scott is the one real pushback because his barrel suppression has been strong, with only a 2.6% barrel rate allowed, plus a .315 xwOBA and .321 xSLG allowed. The counter is Abrams’ role. Scott’s 12.9% walk rate can put extra runners in front, and Abrams does not need a homer to reach three HRR from cleanup.
Jeffers is projected to bat third for Minnesota, which is the right HRR slot: Byron Buxton directly in front, Josh Bell behind, and enough lineup attachment to give Jeffers both run and RBI lanes. The Statcast profile backs the swing. Jeffers is sitting on a .294 average, .410 OBP, .538 slugging, .412 wOBA, .390 xwOBA, .496 xSLG and .244 ISO, with seven HR already. The contact quality is exactly what a 3 HRR bet needs: 91.1 mph average exit velocity, 42.9% hard-hit rate, 15.3% barrel rate, 37.8% sweet-spot rate and a 21.9-degree average launch angle. Tatsuya Imai gives the matchup more volatility in the right direction: 9.24 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 13 earned runs in 12.2 IP, 14 walks, and two HR allowed. His slider has been hit for a .434 wOBA and .536 slugging, while the fastball has allowed a .393 wOBA and 50.0% hard-hit rate. Target Field is cooler than the Philly/Washington spots, but +180 pays for that risk.
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