Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

After starting the postseason 0-5 on the road, the Cavs finally got over the hump on Wednesday in Detroit. Cleveland fought back from down 15 in the game, but the Pistons hit what looked to be the knockout punch to go up nine points with less than three minutes to go. It was the last time they scored in regulation, and the Cavs went on to collect their first road victory of the playoffs in overtime.

Will that momentum carry onto Cleveland’s home floor on Friday night with a chance to clinch? Maybe, but it might not be right away. The Pistons have led at halftime in four of the five games in the series, and I would not be surprised if this is a tight game early with Detroit’s back against the wall. That said, the Pistons have had their road struggles of their own, going 1-4 on the road this postseason. However, the only win was the one they desperately needed, battling back from down more than 20 points in Game 6 in Orlando to avoid elimination.

That said, Orlando completely fell apart offensively in that game. The Cavs have been generating offense at home all postseason, and I expect them to be able to do so on Friday night, with a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. I’ll buy down the Cavs on the moneyline with Donovan Mitchell to score 20+ points, something he has done in every game of this series, and seven consecutive playoff games. The Cavs are 6-0 at home in this postseason, and I expect them to be ready for this opportunity. We’ve seen the lack of help for Cade Cunningham become glaring in this series.

NBA Pick: Cavs ML/Mitchell 20+ Points (-135)

Mitchell’s point prop will also be a straight bet for me. He and James Harden have sort of been taking turns being the man. Mitchell exploded for 39 points in the second half of Game 4 in a comeback victory at home, and then Harden went off on the road in Game 5. Now it’s Mitchell’s turn to carry the load, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing at home.

Despite some struggles in the playoffs, mostly on the road, Mitchell is averaging over 30 points per game in the six games in Cleveland. That includes 35 and 43 points in the two home games in this series. Coming off a poor shooting night in Game 5, with a chance to close out this series at home and advance to his first ever conference final, I expect the best version of Mitchell on Friday.

NBA Pick: Donovan Mitchell OVER 26.5 Points (-124)

With Mitchell’s scoring up at home, the Cavs have also been a significantly better offense in their own arena. The road struggles have been well documented, but I think we’re getting a discount on scoring in Game 6. Markets price for lower scoring games as a series goes on. While that’s with good reason, the Cavs would need their worst offensive output at home of these playoffs to stay under their team total.

Cleveland scored 112 and 116 points in Games 3 and 4 of this series, after averaging 120 points in four home games against the Raptors. The Cavs scored at least 114 points in each game of the first round series, and the 114 game in a high strung Game 7. I’ll back the Cavs to go over their 106.5 team total in this one in a bet that’s strongly correlated to Mitchell’s success.

NBA Pick: Cavs Team Total OVER 106.5 (-118)

San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

One of the strongest trends in the NBA right now held on Tuesday night, as the Spurs improved to 11-0 SU/ATS off a loss. The Spurs mostly dominated, but the Wolves showed life to tie the game in the third quarter. Eventually, San Antonio pulled away by 29 points, setting up a spot for Minnesota to respond at home.

The Wolves have responded to the previous two losses in this series by covering the first half spread at home, and I like them to do it for a third time on Friday. Minnesota’s back is against the wall, and while the Spurs may ultimately win the game, history tells us the Wolves will get out to a strong start at home. We’ve seen it in the first round of these playoffs, and examples go back through the 2025 and 2024 postseasons. I’ll grab +2.5 with the Timberwolves in the first half.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves 1H +2.5 (-112)

For props, I’ll go over to the San Antonio side of the game. Dylan Harper has been a tremendous contributor off the bench for the Spurs, and I’m not sure his props have caught up to his production. In Game 5, Harper posted his second double-double of the playoffs, cashing a +3900 ticket on that in the process. If you want to go back to that prop in the +2400 range, I won’t argue with you.

But I’ll be playing the over on Harper’s points plus rebounds prop, with the numbers strongly in his favor. The No. 2 overall pick has cleared this line in four of five games in this series, and six of his last eight playoff games overall. Harper is averaging 21 total points plus rebound in this series (14.6 points and 6.4 boards). He has at least four rebounds in each game of the series and has scored in double figures four times, with the outlier being eight points in Game 3.

Harper has done everything he can to earn more minutes moving forward, but the Spurs have a crowded backcourt. The rookie could wind up playing more, but even if he doesn’t, he’s been consistently clearing this line in the postseason.

NBA Pick: Dylan Harper OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)