It’s time for the two best words in sports: Game 7. Tonight, the Buffalo Sabres are coming off a massive blowout victory on the road over the Montreal Canadiens which kept their season alive to set up tonight’s matchup. The venue shifts back to the KeyBank Center in New York tonight, and while a home game would usually be something a team welcomes, it’s tough to tell whether the Sabres are actually better off at just 2-4 in their own barn. One thing’s for sure though, which is that the fans should make this a rowdy environment and provide every bit of support possible to their hometown team as they fight to make the Eastern Conference Final for the first time since 1998.

Here’s a Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 7 prediction and pick for Monday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 7 prediction, preview

This has been an interesting series so far to say the least. The Sabres took Game 1 with four goals on just 16 shots, rather unsustainable offensive production that didn’t last over the coming days. The Canadiens then took three of the next four matchups, and there’s no denying they were the better team over that span. Heading into Game 6 over the weekend, Montreal led in most major offensive categories with a 15-to-8 advantage in goals scored, a better xGF mark, and a slight edge in high-danger chances with much better finishing on such attempts.

It seems that none of that matters as much now. Buffalo entered a hostile Bell Centre in Montreal on Saturday, rallied from an early multi-goal deficit, and left with an 8-3 win to force a Game 7. That’s the kind of game that swings the momentum of a series, especially given the pummeling that the Sabres dished out. After being somewhat limited in term of shot volume through Game 4, Buffalo has now posted 36 shots on goal in consecutive games and got the offense going last time out. The Sabres have also mostly closed the gap in xGF while taking the edge in total high-danger chances, though a 9.52% shooting percentage on those could still use some improvement (and is ripe for positive regression).

Perhaps the biggest storyline to watch is the game of musical chairs between the pipes for the Sabres. After allowing three goals on three attempts in Game 6, Alex Lyon has now been replaced in net for Buffalo. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen entered in his place and went 18-for-18 on saves, bouncing back from a poor performance in Game 5 that got him pulled as well. His play has been inconsistent, but he’s shown upside with pressure on him already in this postseason, including a 29-for-31 line in a Game 5 win.

Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 7 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Sabres as -118 home favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Canadiens come in as a slight underdog with -102 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 65% of straight bets on Buffalo to win, 54% of wagers on the Sabres to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 87% on the total’s over.

There are two major keys to watch for in tonight’s matchup. For either side, the play on special teams could make up the difference in who survives. After a miserable first series on the power play, Buffalo is now up to a staggering 37.5% on the man advantage (9-for-24) while Montreal is hitting at a 28.0% clip (7-for-25). Yes, the small sample size means that both those marks are somewhat elevated, but it’s clear to see that whichever team plays a cleaner game in terms of penalties will hold an advantage since the kill units haven’t performed up to par in this series.

The other aspect that should prove intriguing is whether the Canadiens can get back to playing better defense. They were better in terms of total possession early in the series, though giveaways have been an issue in their own zone. Over the last two games though, they’ve given up 36 shots on goal in each, which allowed for some stabilization of the Sabres’ scoring numbers last time out. If the Habs concede 30+ shots again tonight, it could absolutely spell trouble. If they can get back to what we saw early in the series though — or access their own ceiling on offense — this should remain a competitive affair.

The game total has decreased down to 5.5 from the 6.5 it was at last time out. With that in mind, I like the over tonight. These teams have squared off six times in these Stanley Cup Playoffs, over which the over on 5.5 has cashed five times. Going back to the regular season, there have been 10 total meetings. The over’s record across the full sample? That would sit at 9-1. You do the math here, but I’ll be slamming the over tonight.

Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-108)