Keagan Smith breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s Game 3 between the Pistons and Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
The first-round series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers continues on Saturday, and goodness, are the Cavs in trouble. Cade Cunningham has powered his team to a 2-0 lead as the action shifts to Cleveland today, so the big question is whether the home team can match its opponents’ intensity and get its first win to keep the big picture relatively close. If they can’t, it’ll almost assuredly spell the end of their season.
Here’s a Pistons vs. Cavaliers prediction and pick for Game 3 of the NBA Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is at 3 p.m. ET.
Surprisingly, the Pistons are having a much better time against the Cavaliers than they did against the Orlando Magic in the first round. It’s interesting that Detroit has emerged with a pair of 10-point wins to kick off this series despite the higher quality of opponent, but it’s clear that the physicality the No. 1 seed plays with is giving Cleveland problems, especially down low. Look no further than the rebounding battle so far, which the Pistons are ahead in with 43.5 boards a game compared to just 38.5 for the Cavaliers. The offensive glass shows a similar trend — Detroit averages 14.0 offensive rebounds to 10.0 for its opponent.
That battle in the paint is making a big difference, as is the intensity in general of this Pistons defense. They’ve held the Cavaliers to a 43.5% FG%, third lowest of teams in the second round, as well as a paltry 30.0% 3P%, worst of the eight remaining franchises. One can’t say the same for the other side as Detroit is shooting a respectable 46.3% overall, with a whopping 44.4% mark from beyond the arc that leads teams this round. The latter is almost certain to regress as the sample size grows from just two games, but if the Pistons can keep that hot shooting going even one more time, they’ll almost certainly take a commanding 3-0 grip on the series.
So, the rebounding and shooting splits have made all the difference so far, but what can we say about the individual level? Cade Cunningham is clearly the best player in the series (and probably the entire Eastern Conference field). He’s averaging 30.6 points and 7.4 assists in the playoffs, and while his scoring took a downtick to 23 and 25 points in the first two games against Cleveland, he dished out 17 combined assists across those outings. The continued struggles of Jalen Duren as a scorer are a major issue throughout these playoffs with just 10.3 PPG, but he did notch double-digit rebounds in both games to start this series — support that’s certainly needed against a big frontcourt like Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. After a quiet regular season of a career-low 13.3 PPG, Tobias Harris has erupted in the postseason with 21.3 PPG while notching 20+ points in seven consecutive outings. He’s helped carry a ton of the load alongside some nice games from sharpshooter Duncan Robinson, who’s hitting from deep at a 42.0% clip in nine playoff games.
It’s certainly true the Cavaliers have much more star power on their roster, but they haven’t gotten as much support from those guys as expected. Donovan Mitchell has mostly done his part this series with 23 and 31 points in the first two games, though a postseason average of 24.0 PPG is a sign that he’s been quieted in comparison to the regular season. James Harden also averages 19.6 points and 5.9 assists in these playoffs, but he produced just 10 points with three dimes last time out and has struggled with turnovers, coughing the ball up 5.2 times per game over his nine appearances. The bigger issue is Evan Mobley — who posted a line of 18.2 points and 9.0 rebounds per game during the regular season — underperforming, bringing in just one board with nine points last time out. He must step up in every facet of the game for Cleveland to have a chance, even with Jarrett Allen and Max Strus producing double-digit scoring this postseason.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cavaliers are a -4.5 favorite with -185 odds on the Moneyline. The Pistons hold +154 odds of an outright win with the game total set at 211.5 points.
Betting splits show 55% of straight wagers on Cleveland, 55% on Detroit to cover the spread, and 79% on the total’s over.
The Cavaliers could very well win this game, especially after going 27-14 on their home floor for a .659 winning percentage during the regular season. The more interesting part here is that they’re 4-0 on their home court during this postseason run, averaging 120.0 PPG while shooting 51.2% from the field and 36.8% from deep. It’s quite possible they’re just more comfortable there and play better with the home crowd at their backs, so it’s hard to fault anyone who takes them to win this game outright.
However, the Pistons have clearly been the better team thus far. Their defense seems to bother their opponent and when whistles are blown less often in a playoff environment, that only benefits a team like this one more as their physicality often swings a series. Harden and Mobley are both underperforming under the postseason lights, and while Mitchell is great, he can’t do it all himself. Between those stars’ play and the contributions Detroit has gotten from Cunningham and his supporting cast, the visitors should be able to cover the 4.5-point spread this afternoon. One more stat you need to know? The Pistons are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. They’re tough and resilient enough to make that 10-1 today.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。