Closing down Wednesday’s four-game WNBA slate, the Atlanta Dream will take on the Golden State Valkyries. This is the first matchup of the season between these two teams, but they will face off in back-to-back games and three times over the next 10 days.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Dream enter as narrow 1.5-point road favorites and hold -135 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Valkyries are +114 underdogs, with the game total set at 165.5 points.

Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Dream-Valkyries matchup.

Dream at Valkyries Preview

The Atlanta Dream are off to a 12-4 start to the season, which is the second-best record in the league. They enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak and have not lost consecutive games all year. On the season overall, the Dream have gone 9-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in nine of their 16 games played.

Allisha Gray is off to a stellar start to the season, averaging 19.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. Rhyne Howard is not far behind with 19.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists of her own. Angel Reese contributes 15.0 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, while Jordin Canada also averages in double figures with 11.1 points and a team-high 6.7 assists. Naz Hillman and Te-Hina Paopao also play key roles. Brionna Jones and Aaliyah Nye will each be sidelined tonight due to injury.

As a team, the Dream ranks third in the league in scoring, averaging 90.4 points per game. They also rank second in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 83.3 points per game against the Dream, the fourth-lowest mark in the WNBA. Atlanta also ranks second in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.

The Golden State Valkyries are off to a 10-7 start to the season in their second year in the WNBA. They are coming off back-to-back losses against the Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces, which snapped a four-game winning streak before this. On the season, the Valkyries have gone 8-9 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 10 of their 17 games played.

Gabby Williams headlines the production for Golden State, averaging 15.9 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. Janelle Salaun adds 13.2 points and 4.1 rebounds off the bench, while Veronica Burton is the lone other player to average in double figures with 12.8 points and a team-high 5.4 assists. Kayla Thornton, Kiah Stokes, Cecilia Zandalasini and Kaila Charles each also play key roles.

Golden State is scoring 83.8 points per game, which ranks ninth in the WNBA. They also rank eighth in offensive rating, 15th in field-goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage, while launching the most perimeter shots in the league. Defensively, opponents are averaging 79.4 points per game against Golden State, the lowest mark in the league. The Valkyries also rank third in defensive rating, third in opponent field-goal percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.

Dream at Valkyries Pick, Best Bet

Both of these teams have shown some encouraging flashes to start the season and should be relatively satisfied with their start to the year. But this will be an intriguing measuring stick matchup for each side, and the two teams will get plenty familiar with each other over these next 10 days.

My lean is toward Atlanta having a bit too much talent and winning on the road tonight. They are in excellent form of late, winning six of their past seven, and covering the spread in three of their past four. But my best bet is backing the game total to remain under the 165.5 line tonight.

Golden State has capable scorers, but are dependent on its defensive production for success. The Valkyries are holding opponents to the fewest points per game at just 79.4 points per game this season. They have limited teams to as few as 58 points in a matchup, and held opponents to 81 or fewer points in 11 of their 18 games played. They do an excellent job defending the three-point line and limit offensive rebounds at a high rate, which will be crucial in this matchup with the Dream.

Atlanta is a strong offensive team that has scored 100+ points in three of their past four matchups. But these matchups came against the Indiana Fever and Toronto Tempo, who each rank in the bottom three in opponents’ points allowed. Golden State plays at the slowest pace in the WNBA, and this will be a stark contrast to the style of play the Dream has been braced for in recent games.

While they have talented scorers on the roster as well, Atlanta ranks second in rebounds per game, first in opponents’ rebounds allowed, and pulls in the most offensive rebounds in the league. The Valkyries are better equipped than most teams to provide resistance to these second-chance opportunities, which account of 13.6 points per game for Atlanta.

The Valkyries will make a clear effort to slow the pace of play, and will have the home crowd behind them in support. Golden State is a difficult venue to play in, with the Valkyries going 7-3 at home so far this season. Buckle up for a hard-nosed, defensive grind and for the 165.5 game total to be too ambitious for tonight’s matchup.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 165.5 (-108)