Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Saturday’s FIFA World Cup match between DR Congo and Uzbekistan.
Though the group favorites received a scare in their opening match, Group K sits exactly where it was expected to entering the third match: Portugal and Colombia are playing to win the group, and DR Congo and Uzbekistan are fighting for survival at the bottom. The 7:30 p.m. ET match between the two bottom-feeders in Atlanta is critical for both teams’ chances of making the knockouts.
If the teams draw, both will be eliminated, but if the Leopards win, they are assured to advance. The White Wolves will need to win by a significant margin to overturn their minus-seven goal difference.
DR Congo is a -135 favorite to claim all three points and secure advancement at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Uzbekistan is +330 to win. There are +320 odds that the teams will draw, sending both home.
Below, I’ll break down this do-or-die Group K affair and provide my favorite bet.
So far, the Leopards have been the more impressive side, managing to draw with Portugal and actually producing the better chances in that game. Although it then came undone for them in the second match against Colombia in which Los Cafeteros were the better team for most of the night, they were never realistically expected to win either of those matches, and this is the match that Congolese fans have been eying to secure a third-place finish and a date against (likely) England in the Round of 32. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan kept it relatively competitive against Colombia, equalizing in the 60th minute and staying in it until the final kick of the game, but its second match against the Seleçao das Quinas was an utter disaster. Both teams have been emblematic of their continent’s story this World Cup; African teams have over-performed expectations, while Asian teams (Japan aside) have largely struggled.
DR Congo has had a strong defensive identity throughout this tournament, as captain Chancel Mbemba, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Axel Tuanzebe, and Steve Kapuadi have all played at least 170 of the 180 minutes so far. Additionally, Arthur Masuaku was one of the best playmaking center-backs in the Turkish Süper Lig as recently as last season, and he provided the Leopards’ only assist with an excellent cross to Yoane Wissa. All in all, DR Congo has allowed just 0.84 expected goals per match, one of the lowest marks in the competition, and the shots it has allowed have been the fourth-lowest quality looks. Goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi has also been brilliant when called upon. Though the Leopards have struggled to win aerial duels or make much of an impact in passing lanes, they’ve been tremendous at playing the offsides trap. Still, while its defense could keep it in any game, its attack has been dreadful; it has managed the ninth-fewest expected goals per match while getting only 20% of its shots on target, and it has yet to score from open play. The Leopards have also had among the lowest pass completion rates, both overall and on passes into the final third, so they’ll have to tighten that up if they want to secure all three points. Among players with at least 140 minutes, only Masuaku has generated more than 0.20 expected assists.
The White Wolves, too, have struggled in the attack while sitting back in defense. Just as Sébastian Desabre has with DR Congo, Fabio Cannavaro has operated a five-at-the-back system, and despite Uzbekistan’s allowing the fifth-most expected goals per match, there have still been some positives. The White Wolves have registered the 11th-most interceptions and the 15th-most clearances while recording respectable win rates on both ground and aerial duels. In fact, 18-year-old Bekhruz Karimov ranks in the top 50 in tackles per 90 minutes, and Abdukodir Khusanov, Otabek Shukurov, Abdulla Abdullaev, and Rustam Ashurmatov all find themselves near the tops of the leaderboards in other categories. However, Uzbekistan has also had the second-worst goalkeeping in the tournament by goals minus expected goals, and its attack has been even worse than the Leopards’. While it has technically generated more expected goals than DR Congo, 0.982 of them came on a lucky deflection that Abbosbek Fayzullayev headed in, and only Qatar has made fewer touches in the box. The White Wolves’ lone moment of true brilliance, an Aziz Ganiev screamer, was nullified due to a foul, and in general, Uzbekistan has just been a bad, mistake-prone squad, especially in the attack. They’ve completed their passes at a higher rate than the Leopards have, but that’s a low bar; they still rank in the tournament’s bottom 12 in that stat.
With both teams desperately needing a win, they’ll have to be more aggressive in the attack than they were in the first two matches. If either team makes a major tactical switch, I’d expect it to be the White Wolves, given that Desabre has seen more success with his 5-3-2 than Cannavaro with his 5-4-1, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Uzbekistan reverts to the 3-4-3 it used in qualifying and DR Congo to the 4-1-4-1 that allowed it to draw with Senegal during AFCON. At any rate, a more attacking-oriented game should suit the Central African side, as the White Wolves have been heavily reliant on through balls and could get caught offsides. They’ve also committed a lot of fouls, and the Leopards have been dangerous from free kicks. DR Congo’s attackers haven’t performed very well this competition, but Wissa and Cédric Bukambu at least have lots of top-flight experience, which is more than Eldor Shomurodov and Fayzullayev can say. This game could also come down to the goalies, and Mpasi is so much better than whichever of Utkir Yusupov or Abduvohid Nematov starts between the sticks.
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