Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for today’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Sunday’s total bases board has the right kind of June violence: hot bats, taxed mistakes, and pitchers walking into dangerous contact pockets. The best plays are not built on box-score heat alone. They start with hitters producing loud underlying contact, carrying multiple cash paths, and facing arms giving up traffic, barrels, or command leakage. The goal is simple: find bats already lifting the ball with authority, then attack matchups where one double, one mistake, or two sharp swings can clear the number.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases | -110 | Alvarez 2+ total bases pairs a .314/.427/.619 slash, 25 HR, 56 RBI, 1.046 OPS, 94.3 EV, 53.1% hard-hit rate, 18.6% barrels, 12.2% barrels/PA, .476 xwOBA, .679 SLG vs four-seamers, .537 vs changeups, .595 vs sliders, and .818 vs curves with Flaherty’s 5.35 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9, and IL-return command risk. |
| Junior Caminero 2+ total bases | -115 | Caminero 2+ total bases brings a .285/.377/.533 slash, 21 HR, 12 doubles, 64 RBI, .910 OPS, 93.3 EV, 116.9 max EV, .487 xSLG, .367 xwOBA, 51.9% hard-hit rate, 12.9% barrels, 8.9% barrels/PA, and 17.7% K rate into Kelly’s 5.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 44 K, and contact-heavy profile. |
| Bryce Harper 2+ total bases | +115 | Harper 2+ total bases stacks a .278/.379/.536 line, 19 HR, 14 doubles, two triples, 58 RBI, .915 OPS, .409 xwOBA, .464/.500/.821 last-seven form, 3 HR, and 7 RBI against Pérez’s 4.99 ERA, .382 xwOBA allowed, 49.0% hard-hit rate, 12.6% barrels allowed, and a Mets bullpen game. |
| Hunter Goodman 2+ total bases | +110 | Goodman 2+ total bases carries 25 HR, 12 doubles, 159 total bases, .543 SLG, .855 OPS, 16.0% barrel rate, 91 mph EV range, 45% hard-hit territory, Saturday’s three-HR eruption, two 428-foot shots, and one 401-foot blast into a platoon edge against Prielipp’s 5.17 ERA in a nine-run Minnesota environment. |
| Kyle Schwarber 2+ total bases | +120 | Schwarber 2+ total bases attacks with 29 HR, 76 RBI, .253/.370/.584, .954 OPS, 93.3 EV, 52.3% hard-hit rate, .390 xwOBA, 20.6% barrels, top-two lineup volume, and Harper/Bohm protection against Pérez’s 4.99 ERA, .382 xwOBA allowed, 49.0% hard-hit rate, 12.6% barrels allowed, and vulnerable Mets bullpen depth. |
In-depth analysis below.
Yordan Alvarez gets Jack Flaherty in Detroit with a .314/.427/.619 slash, 25 HR, 56 RBI, and 1.046 OPS. His damage profile is obscene without needing a perfect launch. Alvarez owns a 94.3 mph average exit velocity, 53.1% hard-hit rate, 18.6% barrel rate, and 12.2% barrels per plate appearance. He also carries a .476 expected wOBA, 14.6% solid-contact rate, and only 1.3% weak contact, which gives this 2+ total bases bet several clean routes.
Flaherty enters 1-8 with a 5.35 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 4.7 BB/9. He is also coming off the injured list, so command rust matters immediately against Houston’s top order. Alvarez can cash with one homer, one double, or two singles if Flaherty lives behind in counts. His pitch-family power travels well: .679 SLG against four-seamers, .537 against changeups, .595 against sliders, and .818 against curves. Comerica can hold some flies, but Alvarez’s left-handed gap power turns that park into a double machine.
Junior Caminero gets Merrill Kelly with a .285/.377/.533 slash, .910 OPS, 21 HR, 12 doubles, and 64 RBI. Tampa Bay should hit him third behind Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda, giving him immediate traffic and strong pitch quality. Caminero’s underlying power supports the surface heater: 93.3 mph average exit velocity, 116.9 mph max exit velocity, .487 expected slugging, .367 expected wOBA, 51.9% hard-hit rate, 12.9% barrel rate, and 8.9% barrels per plate appearance.
Kelly brings a 5.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and only 44 strikeouts into a brutal right-handed power test. Caminero also avoids the usual young-slugger tax because his 17.7% strikeout rate gives him more contact stability than most power bats. That makes 2+ total bases stronger than a homer chase. One mistake can clear the bet, but a double and a single also fit. Tampa’s lineup context helps, too. Díaz gets on base, Aranda is raking, and Caminero gets RBI chances before the game reaches the middle innings.
Bryce Harper brings the best plus-money price on the card. He enters with 19 HR, 14 doubles, two triples, 58 RBI, a .278/.379/.536 slash, and .915 OPS. The recent form is louder than the season line: .464/.500/.821 over his last seven, with 3 HR, 7 RBI, and a 1.321 OPS. His expected profile backs the surge, with a .409 expected wOBA, strong barrel access, and enough left-center carry to beat any shift in run environment.
Philadelphia should hit Harper behind Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber, which gives him instant RBI volume. Cionel Pérez opens for the Mets with a 4.99 ERA, and his contact sheet is vulnerable: .382 expected wOBA allowed, 49.0% hard-hit rate, and 12.6% barrel rate allowed. The left-left look adds some friction, but Harper is not priced like a perfect matchup. He can cash with a homer, a double, two singles, or a wall-ball that Fenway would call ordinary and Citi Field still respects. The Mets’ bullpen structure keeps the later plate appearances live. At +115, Harper carries the best price-to-profile blend.
Hunter Goodman is the chaos ticket with enough hard evidence behind it. He enters with 25 HR, 12 doubles, 159 total bases, a .543 SLG, and .855 OPS across 77 games. His Saturday eruption was absurd: three homers, five RBI, two 428-foot shots, and another at 401 feet. One huge game can distort a market, but Goodman’s season-long contact supports the violence. He owns a 16.0% barrel rate, 91 mph exit velocity range, 45% hard-hit territory, and upper-tier expected slugging indicators.
The matchup keeps him on the card. Goodman gets lefty Connor Prielipp, and the Rockies get a nine-run environment in Minnesota. Prielipp enters with a 5.17 ERA, and the Twins’ park can reward right-handed lift when the wind cooperates. Goodman’s case is not built on singles. This is a 2+ total bases bet because his best swings erase the requirement immediately. The volatility is obvious, because his expected wOBA trails the box-score explosion. That is why he ranks behind Alvarez, Caminero, and Harper. At +115, the barrel rate and platoon edge still justify the swing.
Kyle Schwarber brings the loudest one-swing total-bases profile outside Alvarez. He enters with 29 HR, a .253/.370/.584 slash, .954 OPS, and 76 RBI across 79 games. His power indicators remain elite: 93.3 mph average exit velocity, 52.3% hard-hit rate, .390 expected wOBA, and a 20.6% barrel rate. That barrel rate gives him immediate 2+ total bases equity every time a pitcher misses in the air.
The Mets’ pitching plan gives Schwarber more than one attack point. Pérez opens with a 4.99 ERA, .382 expected wOBA allowed, 49.0% hard-hit rate, and 12.6% barrel rate allowed. The left-left matchup is the main objection, but Schwarber still gets premium lineup placement. He should hit second between Turner and Harper, with Alec Bohm extending the traffic behind him. That gives him plate appearances, protection, and RBI pressure. Schwarber can cash with one homer, one double, or two firm singles if New York pitches away from his pull-side power. The hit floor is lower than Harper’s, but the 29 HR, .584 SLG, and 20.6% barrel rate keep the ceiling worth buying.
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