When the FIFA World Cup expanded from 32 teams to 48 prior to this summer’s edition, there was some controversy about the allocation of the additional 16 spots. Despite Europe’s being the most successful continent throughout the competition, winning 12 of the prior 22 iterations of the tournament, a primary goal of the expansion was to grow the game around the world. UEFA only received three additional slots, increasing its allocation from 13 to 16 teams, which is still the most of any continent.

I’ll focus on Europe in the first part of this five-part series, in which I’ll go through which team is likely to be the most successful on each continent. Tomorrow, I’ll break down the South American participants, followed by Asia, Africa, and North America. New Zealand, as the only Oceanian competitor, will be the best team in that confederation by default.

First, I’ll break down which UEFA countries are participating in this summer’s World Cup, sorted by their odds of lifting the trophy on July 19 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

List of European countries in the 2026 FIFA World Cup

France (+500)
Spain (+500)
England (+650)
Portugal (+1100)
Germany (+1400)
Netherlands (+2000)
Norway (+3000)
Belgium (+3500)
Switzerland (+8000)
Croatia (+8000)
Turkey (+10000)
Sweden (+10000)
Austria (+15000)
Scotland (+20000)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (+25000)
Czech Republic (+25000)

Which European country will advance the farthest? Pick, best bet

Realistically, the champion will either come from Europe or South America, so it’s likely that whichever team advances the farthest from Europe ends up making at least the final. In fact, the bracket is set up in such a way that, barring a major upset in one of the earlier knockout stages, a European team is guaranteed to make the final, as France, Spain, Argentina, and England — the four highest-ranked nations in the world, per the latest FIFA World Rankings — are guaranteed to meet no earlier than the semifinals, provided that each wins its group. Fifth-ranked Portugal could also have an extremely easy path to the quarterfinals; if the Seleçao das Quinas win Group K, they’ll face a third-place team in the Round of 32, then likely the winner of Group B (Switzerland or Canada) in the Round of 16 before a potential date with the Albiceleste in the quarterfinals. It’s plausible that those four European teams could be the tournament’s final four.

Of the four aforementioned European giants, La Roja likely have the easiest group. Les Bleus have been placed in the tournament’s “Group of Death”, which also features World No. 14 Senegal, Erling Haaland’s Norway, and Iraq, which withstood a long Asian qualification campaign before taking down Bolivia in the Intercontinental Playoffs. The Three Lions will have to contend with Croatia — which has finished in the final four in each of the last two tournaments — as well as No. 35 Panama and Ghana, which, despite some brutal recent results, includes plenty of players who are familiar with England’s play-style, including Premier League starters Mohammed Kudus and Antoine Semenyo. The fellow giant in Spain’s group is Uruguay, but La Celeste won just three of their final 12 games in South American qualification, and their golden generation, featuring strikers Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani, has since retired, leaving them with less attacking depth than usual. Besides Uruguay, La Roja should have an easy time against Saudi Arabia, which hasn’t made it out of the group stage since 1994, as well as debutants Cabo Verde. Portugal has to deal with Colombia, which picked up wins against both Argentina and Brazil in South American qualifying, and DR Congo and Uzbekistan are both regional giants with rising Premier League stars.

However, Spain’s star player, Lamine Yamal, might not be fit for the group stages while recovering from his hamstring injury, and while that wouldn’t necessarily cause La Roja to not win the group — they have lots of depth on the right wing, including Yamal’s club teammate Ferrán Torres — they could have a difficult Round of 32 match against the runner-up in Group J, which could even be Argentina if the Albiceleste slip up in the group. Then, Spain will face either the Group K or Group L runner-up in the Round of 16, which is likely to be either Croatia or Colombia. The Seleçao das Quinas could have an easy run to the quarterfinals, but Argentina is the better team all around. I prefer France’s overall run; if Les Blues top their difficult group, they’ll face a third-place side in the Round of 32 and, presumably, the Group E winner in the Round of 16, which could be Germany, the lowest-ranked non-host among the Pot 1 sides. They should be favored in that match; Die Nationalelf have a good defense, but they lack a true superstar No. 9, and France has the attacking talent (Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Desiré Doué, and Michael Olise) to break through Germany’s back line. England might have the easiest path, as its slated to face a third-place team in the Round of 32 and either the Group A winner (presumably Mexico or South Korea) or a third-place team in the Round of 16, and its most difficult possible quarterfinals opponent is Brazil, a historically great nation in the midst of a low point.

So, is this the Three Lions’ year to get over the hump? On paper, England has among the best squads in the competition, despite some notable omissions from its roster. The Three Lions were the only team on the continent to not give up a goal in qualifying, and they were one of just two teams to win all eight of their matches. They have plenty of stars; Harry Kane has been the best striker in the world this season, and Declan Rice and Eberechi Eze could be coming off of a Champions League title with Arsenal. Their attack is good enough to lead them past Argentina, their likely semifinals opponent, especially with the Albiceleste’s Cristian Romero possibly out for the tournament. Ultimately, though, after losing to Italy in the 2021 Euros and Spain in the 2024 Euros, I think they’ll fall short in another final, as goalkeeper Jordan Pickford and manager Thomas Tuchel just aren’t quite as good as France’s combination of Mike Maignan and Didier Deschamps.

Best Bet: France 1st – England 2nd (+3500)