Nearly one-third of the way through the season, the entire American League is deeply mediocre. So far, only four of the league’s 15 teams are over .500, and the Athletics only just sneak over that mark at 26-24. The AL couldn’t stand in sharper contrast with the NL, where nine different teams (including the entire NL Central) have a winning record.

Two of those four teams will face off this weekend, when the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays travel to face the New York Yankees in a three-game set, with the opener beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET this evening in The Bronx.

Nick Martinez will start the opener for Tampa Bay, while Gerrit Cole gets the call for the Yankees.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees prediction, preview

The Rays were somewhat of an afterthought in the ultra-competitive AL East last season, finishing fourth at 77-85 while New York, the Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays all made the playoffs. This season, though, Tampa Bay has been unstoppable, winning eight of its last 10 games to climb to 33-15, good for the second-best record in baseball. After finishing last season just 14th in OPS, the Rays have jumped all the way to seventh, and Junior Caminero (.268/.357/.508 slash line with 13 homers) has been nearly as good as he was last season, when he hit 45 homers and finished ninth in MVP voting. Additionally, Jonathan Aranda leads the American League in RBI’s and Chandler Simpson in triples. While Tampa Bay’s bullpen has taken a slight step back after losing Pete Fairbanks and Eric Orze, its rotation has been the best in the majors so far, with Martinez and Steven Matz proving to be brilliant free agency acquisitions.

The Rays’ brilliance in their first season back at Tropicana Field has overshadowed just how strong the Yankees have been. New York is 30-21, but it has had a run differential 27 runs better than the Rays’, and though it is just 4-9 in its last 13 games, four of those losses were one-run affairs against fellow contenders in the Blue Jays and the Milwaukee Brewers. Expectedly, the Yankees have had one of the league’s top offenses, as 2019 MVP Cody Bellinger has had his second-best season since his MVP campaign and somehow ranks just fourth on the team in OPS, behind Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, and Paul Goldschmidt. Additionally, after New York’s bottom-10 bullpen last season ultimately did it in, it has a top-10 unit so far this season despite last season’s acquisitions David Bednar and Camilo Doval continuing to struggle. Its rotation has been continually stellar, as Cam Schlittler leads all of the major leagues in ERA (Shohei Ohtani hasn’t pitched enough to qualify).

Martinez trails only Schlittler in ERA, and while it might not be sustainable because he’s never had better than a 3.10 mark in a season before, it’s hard to argue that a guy who hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any start all season is suddenly going to have a stinker. In fact, over his last five starts, he’s allowed a total of three runs in 31.2 innings. However, Statcast doesn’t paint quite so positive a picture; while his expected ERA is still above the league median, it only ranks in the 53rd percentile (3.86). Additionally, while Martinez has exceptional control and does a good job limiting hard hits — which should be an asset against by far the best slugging lineup in baseball — he struggles to induce either whiffs or strikeouts, which should help mitigate some of the Yankees’ biggest weaknesses. If New York puts more balls in play than usual, it’ll put a lot of pressure on Tampa Bay’s defense, which has merely been a slightly-above-average unit this season. To his credit, Martinez has been somewhat better on the road throughout his career, but the Yankees have a league-best .829 OPS at home. I’d still expect a somewhat effective outing — say, five innings and two runs — but he might not be quite as dominant as he’s been for most of the season.

Cole can probably hold his own. He’ll be making his first start since 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March, but in his last complete season (2023), he won the American League’s Cy Young Award after five previous top-five finishes. While he wasn’t quite as good in 2024, he still finished with a solid 3.41 ERA and was mostly undone by a couple of blowup outings. He’s made six rehab starts this season, and in his lone Triple-A outing, he gave up just one run in 5.1 innings. Still, Statcast didn’t love his stuff in 2024; while he finished with a 64th-percentile expected ERA across 17 starts, he also allowed just a 25th-percentile average exit velocity. Though the contact-oriented Rays rank dead last in that category, he also had below-average chase, whiff, and walk rates, and they have the best bat-to-ball skills in the majors. Cole also struggled to induce ground balls, which could help mitigate one of Tampa Bay’s weaknesses. I still expect a similar line (five innings and two or three earned runs), especially since the Rays have struggled away from Tropicana Field, but it isn’t exactly the easiest matchup for him.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees pick, best bet

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+130)

Even if run differential suggests that New York has actually been better than Tampa Bay this season, a 4.5-game margin is pretty significant, and the Rays are in much hotter form. I don’t know if Martinez is 1.51 ERA good, but he’s good enough to out-duel Cole, who has only one good rehab start under his belt. Expecting a win against arguably the best team in baseball in his return is a lot to ask for.

Strong Lean: Chandler Simpson 2+ Hits + Runs + Stolen Bases (-125)

Tampa Bay’s lightning-quick left fielder has little pop, but he also misses extremely infrequently. While Simpson hasn’t been that great against the right-handed four-seamers that Cole likes to throw to lefties, he has an expected batting average north of .370 against both curveballs and cutters, which Cole uses at the next-highest frequencies. Cole has consistently been below-average in the running game, and Austin Wells has just a 32nd-percentile pop time, which is way too slow to nab Simpson.