No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to ultimately win a playoff series. Only four teams who have faced that deficit even came back to force a Game 7. After claiming Games 4 and 5, the Houston Rockets are just two games away from making the right kind of history and the Los Angeles Lakers the wrong kind.

Tonight’s pivotal Game 6 will begin tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET in Houston. Right now, the Lakers are still -330 favorites to ultimately close out the series, but a loss tonight would change that dramatically.

Los Angeles has every member of its rotation available except for Luka Dončić (hamstring), who is expected to miss at least the first two games of the second round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder if the Lakers advance that far. Meanwhile, Houston could get Kevin Durant (ankle) back, but he’s still listed as doubtful.

The Rockets are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 205.5. Los Angeles is +136 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s do-or-die affair.

LeBron James 25+ Points (+142)

James has experienced some of the shooting inconsistencies that might be expected from a 41-year-old in his 23rd NBA season, as he’s just 11-for-29 from the field and zero-for-nine from three across his last two games, but the Lakers would’ve surely been eliminated already without his vintage play. He has scored at least 25 points in three of the series’ five games, including a 29-point, 13-board, eight-assist masterpiece in Game 3 that also featured the game-tying three late in regulation. It’s possible that he’ll defer some to Austin Reaves, who had 22 points in his return in Game 5 in 33 minutes off the bench and presumably will re-enter the starting lineup tonight, but 13 of his 17 25-plus-point games came alongside either Dončić or Reaves (or both).

James has a decent chance of getting there against a Houston defense that’s good, but not elite. The Rockets struggle slightly in rim protection, allowing the third-highest percentage in the restricted area among the 16 playoff participants, and center Alperen Şengün ranked in just the 32nd percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions during the regular season. That makes them an excellent fit for James, who’s attempted 4.6 restricted-area shots per game this series and converted at a 78.3% clip. Instead of sending perennial All-Defensive honoree Amen Thompson at him, Houston has guarded him mostly with Tari Eason, who finished in the 18th percentile in total contests per 100 possessions and the 51st percentile in points saved per 100 possessions during the regular season.

Amen Thompson 2+ Steals (-135)

Thompson was a defensive menace in Game 5, racking up four steals, and though the Rockets managed just two points off of them, they could’ve made all the difference in the six-point game had Reed Sheppard and Thompson made the ensuing three-pointers. He also had three steals each in Games 1 and 3 and ended his regular season by recording two or more steals in five of his final six games. Overall, he had 37 two-steal games in 79 starts. Among 164 players who appeared in at least 65 games, Thompson ranked 24th in deflections per game and sixth in defensive loose balls recovered.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, has had a major turnover issue this series. During the regular season, the Lakers displayed better ball security than Houston, ranking just 15th in turnovers per game, but they’ve either lost or tied the turnover battle during each game this series. While Reaves could help some with that — during the regular season, Los Angeles’ turnover percentage was 0.1 percentage points lower with him on the floor — the Lakers really need Dončić’s steady hand. Thompson has mostly guarded either Marcus Smart or Luke Kennard this series, and both of them have been thrust into ball-handling roles that they typically haven’t needed to fulfill alongside Dončić.

Jabari Smith Jr. 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-125)

The Rockets’ young core has had plenty of inconsistent moments without Durant this series, and while Reed Sheppard, Thompson, and Şengün have each had their moments, Smith has arguably been the most consistent. His length and three-point shooting have provided a boon for Houston all series, and of the four members of the young core, he’s had the second-biggest on-off impact so far this series. He’s converted 40.0% of his threes and made at least three in four of the five games after ending the regular season on a run of eight such games in his final 16.

The Lakers did a good job defending the three-point line during the regular season, but they haven’t been so effective so far this series. During the regular season, Los Angeles allowed the 14th-fewest wide-open three-pointers per game, but that’s jumped to the third-most among first round participants. It also gave up merely the 13th-most corner triples during the regular season but has allowed the third-most so far these playoffs. That could be a problem against Smith, who attempted the most corner threes on the team during the regular season and connected at a 36.7% rate. He also shot 38.8% on wide-open triples.