The Chicago White Sox have turned this series into a statement swing. At 28-27, they enter Thursday’s finale against the 27-29 Minnesota Twins with a chance to take three of four at Rate Field, one day after an 18-hit, 15-2 avalanche that made the lineup look as deep as it has all season. Minnesota still has enough top-order danger to make this interesting, especially with Byron Buxton leading off, but Chicago has the better starter, the sharper matchup split and the hotter collection of impact bats. That is enough to lean into the plus-money payout on a margin play. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

White Sox vs. Twins prediction, preview

Davis Martin gives the White Sox the cleaner foundation. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 2.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 66 strikeouts across 61.2 innings, and he has been even sharper in Chicago with a 1.14 ERA over four home starts. The command is the piece that separates him from a good-run-prevention mirage: Martin owns a 27.4% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate, 22.4% K-BB rate, 9.63 K/9, 1.75 BB/9 and 0.44 HR/9. Minnesota can sting him if the ball finds the barrel, since his contact profile includes a 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 46.9% hard-hit rate allowed, but the Twins’ recent right-handed pitching split gives him a clear lane. Over their last 15 games against righties, they are hitting .223/.286/.388 with a .675 OPS and 92 strikeouts in 398 plate appearances.

Kendry Rojas has the prettier ERA and the more dangerous traffic pattern. The left-hander enters with a 1.26 ERA and 14 strikeouts, but his 1.47 WHIP and 10 walks in 14.1 innings create immediate pressure against a Chicago lineup that has punished left-handed pitching. The White Sox own a .247/.342/.447 slash and .788 OPS against lefties, with 26 HR, 62 walks and 45 extra-base hits in 575 plate appearances. Chase Meidroth leads off after a grand slam and brings a .365/.441/.538 split against lefties. Munetaka Murakami follows with 20 HR, 40 RBI, a 94.1 mph average exit velocity, 57.8% hard-hit rate, 20.7% barrel rate, .394 wOBA, .525 xSLG and three straight games with a homer. Miguel Vargas gives the middle of the order a second matchup hammer with a .333/.472/.772 line, seven HR and a 1.244 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Chicago’s batter layer keeps extending after the stars. Randal Grichuk is hitting .462/.500/.692 over the White Sox’ last 10 games and had three hits in Wednesday’s blowout, pairing that heater with a 91.8 mph average exit velocity, 47.7% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate. Colson Montgomery has four HR and an .824 OPS against lefties, while Edgar Quero has helped lengthen the lower-middle of the order by hitting .316/.391/.474 with one homer, six RBI and seven runs over the last 10 games. That matters against Rojas because walks in front of power can turn a modest inning into a crooked one quickly, and Minnesota’s bullpen has enough soft spots behind him to keep Chicago live beyond the first two trips through the order.

Twins vs. White Sox pick, best bet

The Twins’ case starts with Buxton, and it is a big one. He has 16 HR, 24 extra-base hits and a .996 OPS against right-handed pitching, plus 10 HR and 17 RBI over his last 20 games. He also homered on the second pitch Wednesday before Chicago’s staff retired 21 straight Minnesota hitters, which framed the tension in this matchup perfectly: Buxton can change the game instantly, while the rest of the order has to prove it can sustain pressure against Martin. Trevor Larnach brings a .295/.410/.411 split against righties and Brooks Lee has recent leverage hits, including the bases-clearing double that beat Chicago in extras Tuesday, but the back half is much thinner. Josh Bell is at .182/.259/.306 against righties, Victor Caratini is at .187/.239/.227, Tristan Gray has 20 strikeouts in 74 plate appearances against righties and Ryan Kreidler has 10 strikeouts in a 24-plate appearance sample.

The moneyline is priced like Chicago is the right side, but the run line is the better betting angle. The White Sox have the stronger starter, the more explosive platoon fit, the better recent lineup form and the cleaner path to late separation against a Minnesota staff that has to protect a young lefty with command leakage. Buxton is the danger, and Martin’s hard-contact profile gives Minnesota a first-punch lane if he misses early, but Chicago’s offense has too many lefty-split pressure points to stay quiet for long. Best bet: White Sox -1.5 (+141).

Final score: White Sox 5, Twins 2.

Best bet: White Sox -1.5 (+140) vs. Twins

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