Dan Johnson shares his top player prop bets for today’s MLB slate, including home run, HRRs, and more.
Yesterday got messy, so today’s card starts with the part that actually held up: hitters who are already living inside big innings. Brandon Lowe gave us the reminder early, clearing 2+ HRR with one swing because the role, lineup traffic and event path were all there. Ketel Marte is the night-card version of that idea, and he gives the piece the cleanest face. He’s leading off in a dome for an Arizona team with real scoring expectation, with Corbin Carroll and the middle of the order waiting behind him, and he comes in scorching: 3-for-3 with a homer, three runs and two RBI yesterday after a walk-off three-run shot the day before. After a rough card, that’s the kind of hitter worth building around: form you can see, lineup placement that matters, and enough run-chain support to turn one good swing or one long inning into a finished ticket.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
This is the sharpest system fit if we’re following the Aranda/Stewart/Lowe thread. Marte is the exact player who can sit at the top of a run chain and clear 3+ without needing three separate clean hits. The recent form is screaming: he went 3-for-3 with a HR, three runs and two RBI yesterday, one day after a walk-off three-run homer, and Arizona has won four straight.
The matchup layer makes it stronger. The Rockies starter note I found lists Tomoyuki Sugano with a 4.02 ERA, 7.25 xERA and 5.50 FIP, and RotoWire’s market snapshot has this game sitting 9.0 to 9.5 with Arizona around -205/-210, which implies a real D-backs scoring runway. Marte’s season surface has lagged, but the batted-ball quality is better than the box score: 91.9 mph EV, 47.9% hard-hit, .353 xwOBA and 10.3% barrel. That gap between recent results and expected quality is exactly why 3+ at basically even money makes sense.
This is my favorite Braves/Marlins angle after going deeper. Harris is moving into the No. 2 spot, his highest lineup slot of the season, and Battery Power notes he has been raking right-handed pitching at .318/.339/.523 with a 139 wRC+. Atlanta also leads MLB against righties by wRC+ at 119, so this is not a lonely hitter in a dead offense.
The recent form is there, too: Harris singled twice in Wednesday’s 9-1 win and scored during Atlanta’s sixth-inning rally, and he also homered on May 19. The matchup is Sandy Alcantara, who is better than a true attack pitcher but still gives HRR room: 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 63.2 IP, 60 H, 20 BB, 45 K and four HR allowed. Harris’ Statcast page is nasty for an HRR bet: .355 wOBA, .398 xwOBA, 94.6 mph EV, 57.1% hard-hit, 16.8% barrel, 75.0 mph bat speed. This has multiple paths: double-plus-run, hit-plus-RBI, homer, or Acuña/Harris/Olson inning compression.
Abrams is the one from Mets/Nats I’d seriously consider because the threshold is only 2+ and the recent form is exactly what this market wants. He hit a three-run homer, added a single and scored twice in Wednesday’s 8-4 win, giving him his 10th HR.
Today’s matchup is David Peterson, and this is where the environment gets interesting. Peterson is listed at 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA, and one preview had the Nationals ranked first in MLB vs. left-handed pitching with a 126 wRC+ and .798 OPS. Abrams is projected cleanup, with James Wood, Curtis Mead and Andrés Chaparro in front and Dylan Crews/Daylen Lile behind. His current line on the plaintext board is .300 AVG, 32 R, 54 H, 10 HR, 42 RBI, seven SB, .389 OBP and .539 SLG. For 2+, that is a gorgeous event profile: one double, one RBI single, one reach-and-score, or a solo homer clears it.
Langeliers is a real 3+ candidate, but the matchup requires more respect than yesterday’s A’s spots. He is priced at +130 because the profile is loud: .425 wOBA, .413 xwOBA, 92.4 mph EV, 47.4% hard-hit, 15.3% barrel, 38.0% sweet-spot and 20.0-degree launch angle. That is a monster catcher/DH offensive page and exactly why he can clear 3+ on one swing.
The concern is José Soriano. He comes in 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 67 strikeouts, so this is not a soft starter attack. The reason Langeliers stays alive is recent shape: Soriano has been tagged for 15 runs in his last four starts after allowing only one single run across his first six, and the A’s offense just kept creating late traffic in a 6-5 extras win, with Kurtz driving in a seventh-inning run and Soderstrom winning it in the 10th. I like Langeliers only if he is confirmed top-two. If he slips, the 3+ threshold gets much less appealing.
Soderstrom is the kind of 2+ HRR bet that makes more sense at the lower threshold than as a full 3+ chase. He just gave Oakland exactly the box-score shape we’re trying to buy: an early two-RBI single, then the go-ahead RBI single in the 10th, which means two different plate appearances with run-production attached. The caution is real—he had been in a 4-for-41 rut and had gone 11 straight games without an RBI before that—but the underlying contact page is much better than the cold stretch: .308 wOBA, .320 xwOBA, 90.7 mph average EV, 48.2% hard-hit rate, 12.7% barrel rate, 30.2% sweet-spot rate and a 14.3-degree launch angle. He also has 79 total HRR on the board, so even with the ugly slash-line stretch, the full-season event base is there. The matchup is the tax. José Soriano comes in with a 6-3 record, 2.41 ERA and 67 strikeouts, and that is a real arm. The reason Soderstrom stays live is lineup attachment: if he’s sitting behind Kurtz and Langeliers with Rooker nearby, one single with traffic, one double, one run-plus-hit sequence, or one RBI knock gets him home at 2+. The 3+ number asks too much into Soriano. The 2+ price is the cleaner way to bet the rebound without needing a full explosion.
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