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Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s all-day slate: Daulton Varsho, James Wood and Ozzie Albies.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho | +494 | Since returning from the IL on Saturday, Varsho has a pair of home runs and a pair of doubles. Now he’ll get to face Mike Burrows, who has surrendered 2.60 opponent home runs per nine in his last seven outings. |
| James Wood | +312 | Wood owns 100th percentile marks in barrel rate (23.9%), expected wOBA (.428) and hard hit rate (60.4%). He does not own a home run off Aaron Nola in his career — at least not yet. The veteran’s conceded 2.08 home runs per nine to LHBs in 2026. |
| Ozzie Albies | +528 | After giving up 1.99 home runs per nine in 2025, JP Sears has posted a 7.92 ERA in Triple-A this season. He’ll make his 2026 MLB debut on Wednesday against the Braves. Albies is slashing .313/.336/.530 with a .216 ISO off LHPs. |
In-depth analysis below.
This past weekend, Daulton Varsho returned from a short absence on the 10-day IL. Spoiler alert: He’s not shown any signs of rust. The veteran outfielder has tended to be streaky throughout his career, and it appears that he’s in a good place at the moment, having collected a pair of home runs and a pair of doubles in his first three games back. Now he’ll get the added benefit of drawing a matchup with the struggling Mike Burrows. When the Astros traded for Burrows this offseason, it made a lot of sense. The organization needed a young, controllable arm, and Burrows had just had a solid rookie campaign with the pitching-flush Pirates. However, Burrows now finds himself possibly pitching for a job on Wednesday. In the right-hander’s past seven appearances (six starts), he’s registered a 6.75 ERA and a 6.94 FIP. It’s also a span where he’s surrendered 2.60 opponent home runs per nine and allowed LHBs to combine for a .318/.406/.591 slash line. Woof.
Somehow, James Wood does not have a home run off Aaron Nola in his career. I think that changes today. Wood is in the midst of a monstrous campaign. In fact, the young slugger comes into Wednesday’s matchup with the Phillies in possession of 100th percentile marks in barrel rate (23.9%), expected wOBA (.428) and hard hit rate (60.4%) — among other things! There’s just no way around it. Wood is one of the most dangerous left-handed hitters on the planet, and that should be terrifying to Nola. The former seventh-overall pick has seen his struggles from 2025 carry over to 2026. Nola’s throwing a little harder, which is nice to see, yet he’s still being barreled at a 9.1% rate and he’s still giving up over 1.70 opponent long balls per nine. LHBs have specifically caused Nola headaches this season, as those within the split have averaged 2.08 home runs per nine with a .392 wOBA.
Look, I don’t want to shame the Padres too much, as they’re currently dealing with a host of injuries in their rotation, but calling up JP Sears probably isn’t the answer. It’s not easy to pitch in the PCL, but goodness has the veteran lefty had poor results in 2026, with a 7.92 ERA across 14 starts and 63.2 innings. It’s almost as bad as his MLB numbers from 2025, when Sears surrendered 1.99 opponent long balls per nine over 27 starts. I’m starting to sense a pattern. The Braves haven’t hit lefties as well as they’ve hit righties this season, but we all know Ozzie Albies loves to see a southpaw coming. As has been the case for years, Albies is slashing .313/.336/.530 with a .216 ISO within the split. For his career, Albies’ 135 wRC+ against LHPs is 40 points higher than his wRC+ versus RHPs. He’s got a type.
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