Sean Barnard shares his breakdown and pick for the San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks Game 4 NBA Finals matchup.
The Spurs have punched back against the Knicks to cut the NBA Finals series lead to 2-1. The road team has been victorious in all three matchups thus far in the series, and the action will remain in New York for tonight’s pivotal Game 4. San Antonio showed the necessary level of desperation in its previous victory and will look to rekindle it tonight. In contrast, the Knicks saw their 13-game postseason winning streak snapped and suffered their first loss since April 23rd.
Looking at the odds for Game 4, the Knicks enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -130 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spurs are +110 to win outright, with the game total set at O/U 216.5 points.
Youth has been the biggest criticism of this Spurs team, but it once again showed its poise and maturity with an 115-111 victory on the road in Game 3. This comes after a regular season in which San Antonio went 62-20 to earn the second seed in the Western Conference. On the season, the Spurs have gone 59-43-2 against the spread, and the game total is 49-55 to the over/under.
Victor Wembanyama headlines the production for San Antonio. The first-ever unanimous Defensive Player of the Year posted averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game across the regular season and is contributing 24.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game across the playoffs. Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper round out San Antonio’s guard rotation and shared the floor together at a greater rate in the previous matchup. Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, and Keldon Johnson round out the wing rotation, while Luke Kornet logs the backup big minutes.
The Spurs finished the regular season averaging 119.8 points per game, which ranks third in the NBA. They also ranked fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which ranks eighth in the league. The Spurs also ranked third in defensive rating, fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and eighth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Knicks saw their 13-game postseason winning streak snapped, putting an end to one of the most dominant playoff winning streaks in NBA history. This comes after the Knicks went 53-29 in the regular season to earn the third seed in the Eastern Conference. There have been some significant ups and downs across the season, but New York has found its top gear at the right time. Across the regular season and playoffs thus far, the Knicks have gone 57-43 against the spread, and the game total is 47-53 to the over/under.
Even while the surrounding roster has been upgraded, Jalen Brunson remains the heart of the Knicks’ attack. The Villanova product posted averages of 26.0 points, 6.8 assists and 3.3 rebounds across the regular season, and he has had some of his best moments when the lights have been the brightest. He is averaging 26.9 points and 6.2 assists across the playoffs, but has had some of his most notable struggles in this matchup. Karl-Anthony Towns provides balance in their attack, adding 16.9 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game across this playoff run. OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart are the glue of this team, and each has had some impressive flashes in this series. This is the deepest Knicks roster of the Brunson era, with players like Mitchell Robinson, Jordan Clarkson, Miles McBride and Jose Alvarado each capable of putting their fingerprints on this series.
As a team, the Knicks averaged 116.5 points per game, which ranked 10th in the NBA across the regular season. They also ranked third in offensive rating, 11th in field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 110.1 points per game against New York, which ranks fifth in the league. Mike Brown’s squad also ranks fifth in opponent field-goal percentage and 20th in opponent three-point percentage.
It has been a physical battle thus far in the series, with tempers feeling like they are only further heating up. Both teams have brought high levels of effort on both sides of the ball, and this has been one of the more entertaining NBA Finals matchups in several years.
The Knicks leaped out to a 1-0 series lead by defeating the Spurs 105-95 in Game 1. San Antonio’s offense stalled down the stretch, being outscored 29-19 in the fourth quarter to cement this fate. The Spurs shot just 36% from the floor and 26% from beyond the three-point arc in this matchup.
Game 2 left an even more sour taste in the Spurs’ mouths. Wembanyama spearheaded an impressive second-half effort from this Spurs team, only for it to fall apart with the game on the line. San Antonio led 104-102 with less than a minute left to play, but Brunson tied the game up with a mid-range jump shot, while Wembanyama missed his go-ahead attempt with 30.3 seconds on the clock. The Spurs got the defensive stop they needed to keep the game tied, but a miscommunication between Wembanyama and Castle led to a turnover and Brunson being fouled with 9.5 seconds remaining. The Knicks star knocked down a go-ahead free throw while Wembanyama came up empty-handed on his last-second attempt to cement the 105-104 New York victory.
It was expected to be a wild environment with the series returning to New York and the stakes in mind for Game 3. But from the early minutes, the Knicks looked to be the team playing more nervously. San Antonio was able to build up a comfortable first-quarter lead and then hit a defensive gear that paved the path to a win. The Knicks never fully rolled over and went away, but the Spurs held a lead for 78% of the matchup and secured the 115-111 win.
Brunson remains at the epicenter of the New York attack, but has largely struggled in this series. He has still made some crucial shots in big moments, but is shooting 30-for-81 (37.0%) from the field and 7-for-22 (31.8%) from beyond the three-point arc in this series with 13 assists to 13 turnovers. San Antonio has made a clear effort to make every look difficult for him and is showing a willingness to play physical in a way that has been a bit bothersome to the scrappy guard.
Wembanyama has also been right in the middle of plenty of physicality, and no different should be expected tonight. He has proven poised well beyond his years throughout the entirety of the season, but there have been some flashes of inexperience on this major NBA Finals stage. The 7-foot-4 big man is the tone-setter on both sides of the ball and will need to match, and possibly outperform, what he showed in the previous victory.
The Knicks have looked completely unbeatable for the past month and a half, and it is a major mental hurdle that this Spurs team just cleared to put one in the win column. It is also worth acknowledging that their pathway to this stage has been much more difficult compared to the Knicks’ wide-open path through the Eastern Conference. Fatigue seemed to be a factor in the early stages of this series, following a seven-game war the Spurs won over the defending champion Thunder in the previous round. Game 3 was the most the Spurs played to their full identity, and the results showed.
But this is going to be a close series throughout. The Knicks have been the best fourth-quarter team in the NBA this season and have an extremely reliable late-game offense. This is one of the larger concerns for this youthful Spurs team. Wembanyama is an extremely unique talent, but leaves a bit to be desired from an offensive creation standpoint. The biggest point in New York’s favor is trusting them more in the big moments, given their experience and time played together.
However, there is a top-end level the Spurs can hit that the Knicks can’t quite reach. San Antonio took over the previous game defensively in a way that felt like it had 10 guys on the floor. This has been especially bothersome to Brunson, with a clear focus on being physical and making sure he does not have a clear path to getting to his desired spots. The biggest point of growth on this Knicks team has been the increased ball movement and team basketball. In past years, they became too isolation-dependent with Brunson at the helm, and have regressed to bad habits in this series. This has been partially due to the Spurs’ impressive defense, and partially due to the Knicks’ decision-making.
But San Antonio still left plenty of production on the board of its own right. Harper and Fox shot a combined 9-for-32 from the field and 1-for-13 on three-point attempts in the previous win. These came on largely wide-open looks, with the Spurs having some real success collapsing this Knicks’ defense and generating great shot opportunities.
Home court has not mattered at all in this series, and expect that principle to carry over into tonight. This youthful San Antonio team has not blinked at the weight of the moment at any point this season, and don’t expect this to change tonight. The Spurs must get out to a lead and play with a cushion in crunch time to have a pathway to win. New York is capable of snatching its soul in late-game situations, but there has not been enough attention paid to where the Spurs can still grow in their production. This is an even series that should be expected to go deep, and expect San Antonio to match its effort of the previous games to even things up tonight. Expect the Spurs’ defense to be the biggest takeaway again tonight, and I am backing the series to return to San Antonio with things all square.
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