On Tuesday, in Game 1 of their conference semifinals series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Los Angeles Lakers played a pretty solid game of basketball…and lost by 18 points. That’s how dominant the Thunder have been; while their worst is probably worse than the Lakers’ best, any tier above that is much better than Los Angeles’ median.

Oklahoma City will seek to extend its lead to a commanding 2-0 before the series heads to Southern California for Games 3 and 4. Game 2 will begin at 9:40 p.m. tonight at the Paycom Center.

Both teams have some injuries. For the Lakers, Luka Dončić (hamstring) remains out, with Jarred Vanderbilt (pinky) doubtful and Luke Kennard (neck) questionable. Meanwhile, the Thunder will continue to be without Jalen Williams (hamstring), though he’s been out for most of the season anyway.

Oklahoma City is a 15.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-900 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 210.5. Los Angeles is +600 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this must-win game for the visitors and offer a prediction.

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction

LeBron James did all he could in Game 1, recording 27 points, four rebounds, and six assists on 12-for-17 shooting, and the Lakers were out-scored by only six points when he was on the court. Rui Hachimura also put forth a solid effort, scoring 18 points, and Deandre Ayton had a 10-point, 12-rebound double-double, though he was limited to just 27 minutes because of foul trouble. The issue was everyone else; Austin Reaves shot just three-for-16, the most inefficient playoff performance in franchise history, and Marcus Smart wasn’t much better, shooting four-for-15, though at least he had four steals. Los Angeles also got just 15 points from its bench.

Meanwhile, the Thunder won easily despite a sub-par performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City’s likely MVP scored just 18 points — something he never did in the regular season — and committed seven turnovers, but Chet Holmgren looked unstoppable, scoring 24 points and adding 12 rebounds and three blocks. Ajay Mitchell, who wasn’t part of the Thunder’s championship rotation last season, looked the part of a solid No. 3, scoring 18 points of his own. Oklahoma City also got plenty of contributions from Jared McCain, who it acquired at the trade deadline; McCain made a pair of threes early in the fourth to effectively put the game away.

Lakers at Thunder pick, best bet

There were some encouraging signs for the Lakers in Game 1. The Thunder were the league’s best rim protecting team during the regular season, allowing the second-fewest shots per game within five feet and the lowest percentage on such shots, with Holmgren ranking in the 100th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions and Isaiah Hartenstein in the 83rd. Los Angeles also didn’t get downhill very often during the regular season. However, in Game 1, the Lakers managed to attempt four more shots within five feet than Oklahoma City did, though they made the same number. The Thunder still scored eight more points in the paint overall because they were far better in the non-restricted paint, but that was a smaller margin than they had in the regular season, and some regression to the mean for Reaves’ finishing could help bring Los Angeles back into it.

Oklahoma City won the rebounding battle in Game 1, which could continue to be a key swing factor in this series. Rebounding was just about the Thunder’s lone weakness during the regular season, as they ranked just 22nd in that stat, but they’ve cleaned it up so far these playoffs, ranking fourth among the 16 playoff participants in rebounding percentage and sixth in rebounds per game, ahead of the Lakers in both stats. Additionally, they had the edge in transition, scoring 24 points off of turnovers to Los Angeles’ 20 and 16 fast-break points to the Lakers’ 11, and given their edge in that phase of the game during the regular season, that should be sustainable. With a disadvantage in transition, Los Angeles can’t afford to commit more fouls, but Oklahoma City drew two more in Game 1, an edge that should narrow given each team’s regular season performance.

The Thunder were also better from deep, shooting 13-for-30 (43.3%) while the Lakers shot just 10-for-30 (33.3%), but luck was definitely a factor. Oklahoma City generated the easier shots, attempting seven more wide-open threes than Los Angeles did, but it’s been generally beatable by teams with elite shooters, and it’s more prone to a dip in shooting luck because it nailed such shots at a rate more than 10 percentage points higher in Game 1. Overall, the Lakers have the edge in raw shooting talent, as Kennard led the league in three-point percentage and both Reaves and Hachimura have been among the league’s best by three-point percentage over expectation. They’ll be even more potent from the perimeter once Dončić returns, but for now, it’s still reasonable to expect Los Angeles to at least equal the Thunder’s performance from beyond the arc in Game 2.

There are enough positives to take away from the Lakers’ performance in Game 1 that I’m willing to suggest they’ll cover the spread in Game 2. Reaves and Smart are due for some improved play, even if Gilgeous-Alexander is on the other side. They’re also more due to benefit from three-point shooting variability; McCain is unlikely to come in and make four treys off the bench again. JJ Redick’s strategy to send constant doubles at Gilgeous-Alexander proved pretty effective in Game 1, and I’m not convinced that putting Lu Dort and Alex Caruso — two talented but undersized defenders — is the right answer to slow down the physically dominant James. Reaves has some tough matchups in Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell, but he’s proven himself able to thwart other quality perimeter defenders before, even if his track records against Wallace and Mitchell are poor. Plus, James and Hachimura were more effective against Holmgren in the regular season than they were last night.

Best bet: Los Angeles Lakers +15.5 (-110)