With six weeks of matches remaining, the La Liga title race is basically over. Barcelona has a nine-point lead over Real Madrid, and even though the Blaugrana are now without both of their superstar wingers in Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, they are deep enough that they likely won’t blow the lead. But a lot remains to be determined in Spanish football; since Atlético Madrid remains alive in the Champions League, La Liga is narrowly ahead of the Bundesliga for the final European Performance Spot in next season’s Champions League.

If Spain manages to keep that spot (which would depend on Atleti’s results in the semifinal against Arsenal and Bayern Münich’s against Paris Saint-Germain, as well as Freiburg’s in the Europa League and Rayo Vallecano’s in the Europa Conference League), Real Betis could be in line for its first Champions League appearance since 2005/06. It currently holds a five-point lead over Getafe and Celta Vigo in fifth.

Los Verdiblancos will host Real Madrid on Friday at 3 p.m., and while a win would mean little for Los Blancos unless Barcelona completely collapses without Yamal, a Betis win would make their fifth position more secure and put them within striking distance of Los Colchoneros in case they slip up.

Real Madrid is a -115 favorite to to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Los Verdiblancos are +260. There are +320 odds that the teams will draw.

Real Madrid vs. Real Betis prediction, pick

Los Blancos got off to a hot start to the season, winning 13 of their first 14 games in all competitions, but the margins are fine in Spain when Barcelona is the competition, and three draws in a row between Matchweeks 12 and 14 made catching the Blaugrana difficult. Back-to-back defeats in Matchweeks 25 and 26 sealed their fate. Since then, Real Madrid has basically been resigned to second, and its had three losses and a draw from its last five contests. To be fair, though, that form is better than Real Betis’; Los Verdiblancos have picked up just two wins in the last two months, one of which came against Panathanaikos in the Europa League and the other on Tuesday against mid-table Girona. Both teams are out of their respective competitions; Los Blancos lost to Bayern in the Champions League, and Los Verdiblancos lost to Braga.

Real Madrid’s front line has still performed even in a tumultuous season for the team overall. Kylian Mbappé continues to prove his worthiness for the Ballon d’Or, producing 24 goals in 27 league matches and adding 15 more in the Champions League, and while Vinicius Júnior (18 goals and 10 assists in all competitions) has been quiet by comparison, those are excellent stats, too. Federico Valverde also has at least 20 goal contributions in all competitions, and Los Blancos have scored the second-most goals in La Liga, though they’ve actually scored fewer goals than might be expected based on the chances they’ve created. They’ve also been rather strong defensively, allowing the fewest expected goals and shots on target, as well as the fifth-lowest shot-in-box percentage. They’ve also won both ground and aerial duels at top-two rates, and only Barcelona has allowed fewer headed goals. Madrid still makes a few too many mistakes, but that’s part and parcel of possessing the ball for so much of the game, and it’s made up for it by forcing the second-most high turnovers. It might be a little bit more vulnerable with Andriy Lunin between the sticks instead of Thibaut Courtois, but Lunin is a respectable backup goalkeeper whose 70.4% career save percentage in La Liga would rank 16th among qualifiers this season.

Betis doesn’t have any standout individual stars, but it does have an attack well-rounded enough to pose some problems for Los Blancos’ back line. Cucho leads the team with eight goals in La Liga, but Pablo Fornals, Antony, and Abde Ezzalzouli have each contributed seven. Additionally, Antony has added six goals in the Europa League and leads the team in goal contributions overall. Los Verdiblancos have done a good job creating opportunities, ranking sixth in La Liga in expected goals, and they’ve managed the fifth-most shots on target, and they’ve been strong in distribution, ranking seventh in completion percentage on passes into the final third. Defensively, Betis has allowed chances worth the fourth-fewest expected goals and given up shots in the box at an even lower rate than Real Madrid. It’s also won a majority of both its ground and aerial duels, and it combines an elite offsides trap with a pressing system that has forced the fourth-most high turnovers ending in a shot. Goalkeeper Álvaro Vallés is somewhat problematic, as he’s kept only one clean sheet in his last eight matches, but a clean sheet was never the expectation against Los Blancos anyway.

Given Real Madrid’s injury crisis — in addition to Courtois and Rodrygo, who went out with a torn ACL in early March, Éder Militão and Arda Güler are also out injured after suffering lower-body injuries — I’m not so confident in Los Blancos to keep a clean sheet either. Los Verdiblancos have a solid press, and they haven’t been nearly as mistake-prone as Madrid has. Los Blancos have also been horrible at catching opponents offsides, and Betis uses through balls a lot. A high-scoring Madrid win obviously wouldn’t be a surprise (as happened at the Santiago Bernabeu the last time these two teams faced off), but the hosts taking all three points wouldn’t be either.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score No Draw (+105)