Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.
Despite their middling 39-37 record, the Mariners stand alone atop the AL West. Still, Seattle can’t afford to get complacent in the American League pennant race. Stacking up wins between now and the All-Star break will be crucial for this group. As for the Red Sox (29-43), things have not gone to plan. Even with the season slipping away, Boston has enough talent to pull off an upset win on the road tonight.
The Mariners are favorites (-112) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at 6.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Boston and Seattle on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toeing the slab tonight will be Ranger Suarez. All things considered, it’s been a terrific debut season in Boston. Through 70.0 innings (13 starts), he’s put up a 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 70 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). In six of his previous eight outings, the Venezuelan has held opponents to two earned runs or less. The veteran makes up for subpar speed with solid command (2.7 BB/9) and limiting hard contact. Suarez places within the 83rd percentile in average exit velocity (87.0 MPH). So far, he’s been better on the road (2.65 ERA) than at home (3.75 ERA).
If there was ever a time to face the Mariners, it’s right now. Former All-Stars Randy Arozarena (hamstring) and Brendan Donovan (groin) are on the injured list. Other key contributors such as Julio Rodriguez (hamstring) and Luke Raley (flu) are questionable. Cal Raleigh, last season’s AL MVP runner-up, has been abysmal at the plate this season. Granted, there’s still plenty to like about Seattle’s offense. The team is seventh in home runs (96). However, the M’s own a league-worst .637 OPS against left-handed pitching. That’s before factoring in the potential loss of right-handed hitters Arozarena and Rodriguez.
The home team will counter with a standout arm of their own in Bryce Miller. After a disastrous 2025 campaign, the 27-year-old looks better than ever this season. Over six outings (35.0 IP), he’s recorded a 1.54 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 36 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). The righty has surrendered just two earned runs over his last 19.0 innings of work (0.95 ERA). A quick look at Miller’s Savant page should get Mariners fans excited. He ranks inside the 90th percentile in xERA (2.34), xBA (.197), average exit velocity (86.2 MPH), chase rate (36.0%) and walk rate (4.0%).
Even if Miller isn’t at his sharpest, it may not matter tonight. To call this Boston offense disappointing would be sugar coating it. This group has been downright anemic, averaging an American League-worst 3.92 runs per game. As if things couldn’t get any worse, outfielder Roman Anthony (finger) is sidelined on Friday. Miller’s secret weapon is a splitter, which he’s thrown 20% of the time this season. Against that pitch, the Red Sox have recorded a .201 xBA, .235 xOBP and .268 wOBA. Boston has scored 34 runs over its previous ten contests, third-worst in baseball during that time.
It’s one of the lower run totals you’ll ever see to start a game, and for good reason. These are two talented starters taking the mound at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Key injuries for both sides, especially Seattle, should only make scoring more difficult tonight. Consider buying this total down to under 6.5 at -102.
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