The MLB takes center stage with playoff runs finished in two of the other major American sports leagues, meaning we’re really getting into the thick of baseball season now. At 7:45 p.m. ET tonight, the San Diego Padres scrap with a feisty St. Louis Cardinals group under the iconic arc. Game one of this set ended with a 3-0 win for the Redbirds, so can they keep it going again here?

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Padres vs. Cardinals matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Padres vs. Cardinals prediction, preview

San Diego Padres

The Padres remain locked in a battle for second place in the NL West at 37-34 on the year with a run differential of -13. The last couple weeks have been uninspiring and they’re 5-5 over their last 10 games, still succeeding thanks largely to the pitching staff. The club averages an MLB-low 3.83 runs per game, which thankfully improves to 4.24 on the road like tonight. Here’s the deal. San Diego sits dead last in OPS at .652 and brings a slash line of just .217/.291/.361 with the lowest AVG and OBP in baseball. The Friars are one of just two clubs with a wOBA below .300 (theirs is .290) and a 247 wRC is also worst in the sport. Yes, a .258 BABIP means maybe they’re a little unlucky, but even with that concession there are still numerous problems with this offense. An 0.38 BB/K ratio is on the low side thanks to a slightly elevated 23.1% K%. Plus, they have only 73 homers but an ISO of just .144. Against right-handers like they’ll face tonight, the slash line reads .216/.293/.363 with an OPS of .653.

The Padres start stud RHP Michael King this evening, who’s 4-5 in 14 starts but has a 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 72 punchouts in 80.2 UP. He’s kept exit velocity down and forced more ground balls than the average pitcher, but has struggled some with his control and has a low chase rate. He is, however, backed by an elite bullpen with a 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 16.0% K-BB%.

St. Louis Cardinals

The success of the Cardinals this season is astounding since they’re eight games above .500 at 39-31 despite expectations of a rebuild. At 7-3 over their last 10 games, they’ve also been hot lately and have a total run differential of +15. The club produces 4.60 runs per game, though a 4.11 average at home does mean there’s a slight downtick at their own park. Still, an OPS of .722 is good for 14th in the MLB on a slash line of .246/.323/.399. The Cardinals have a .287 BABIP and a .320 wOBA, also falling 16th in wRC at 321. In terms of power, they’re a moderate 18th in ISO at .143 but have 83 homers on the year. An 0.41 BB/K ratio isn’t much to write home about, but their splits against right-handed pitchers like King are quite solid at .244/.321/.403 for a .723 OPS and 61 of their 83 homers. In June, they’ve been notably hot as well, amassing an .814 OPS in 13 games with 75 runs over this span.

It’s RHP Andre Pallante on the bump tonight for St. Louis. He’s gone 7-4 in 13 starts with a 3.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 56 strikeouts across 69.2 IP. He’s performing right in line with his xERA and doesn’t have much in the way of strikeout stuff with low chase and whiff rates, but he’s at an 89th-percentile ground-ball rate and above average in hard-hit rate. The Cards’ bullpen has an ERA of 4.21 with a 1.35 WHIP and 10.9% K-BB%.

Padres vs. Cardinals pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cardinals as slight -114 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Padres are close behind as underdogs at -106 odds to win outright with the run total set at just eight.

Best Bet: STL Cardinals ML (-114)

Good offense vs. worst offense in baseball? Don’t overthink this one! The Padres’ bats are poor and have been all year, and over the last two weeks they’re at a .629 OPS with a .210 AVG. Over the same span, the Cardinals are at an .842 OPS and stunning .286 AVG that sits second in the sport. Their bats are hot! This is exactly the kind of thing we want to see with this pick, plus there’s no major concern on the lefty/righty splits here either. King is a good pitcher, sure. He’s stumbled lately, though, with three or more earned runs allowed in each of his last four starts and 16 total given up over this same sample. Will Pallante take advantage of a swing-happy San Diego group? Not necessarily since he doesn’t get a ton of punchouts, but that may not matter in the end. There’s just a big difference between these teams and St. Louis is 43-27 on the run line, good for the second best cover percentage in baseball.